Интересные статьи

<b>Аналогия на русском :tatice_06:

www.k2kapital.com </b>

<!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b><div align="center">План спасения страховщиков облигаций вызвал ралли на биржах США</div></b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc-->

Американские фондовые индексы в последние минуты торгов в пятницу продемонстрировали хороший рост и закрылись в положительной территории благодаря сообщениям о том, что крупные банки могут представить план по разрешению проблем компаний, занимающихся страхованием облигаций, уже в понедельник 25 февраля.

По итогам торгов индекс "голубых фишек" Dow Jones Industrial Average вырос на 96,72 пункта, или на 0,8%, до 12381,02 пункта. “Высокотехнологичный” Nasdaq Composite укрепился на 3,57 пункта, или на 0,2%, и закрылся на отметке 2303,35 пункта. Индекс широкого рынка S&P 500 закрылся с ростом на 10,58 пункта, или на 0,8%, на отметке 1353,11 пункта.

За прошедшую неделю индекс Dow Jones Industrial Average вырос на 0,3%, индекс широкого рынка S&P 500 укрепился на 0,2%, а высокотехнологичный Nasdaq Composite упал на 0,8%.

Последние полчаса торгов оказались решающими на американских фондовых биржах. После открытия торгов индексы пошли вверх, но вскоре произошел разворот, и индексы начали снижаться. По мнению аналитиков, такая нестабильность была вызвана неопределенностью прогнозов относительно дальнейшего развития американской экономики. Кроме того, инвесторы сейчас разделены на два лагеря. Одни считают, что рынок уже достиг дна, и надеются на возобновление роста. Другая группа инвесторов настроена скептически, и использует каждую попытку роста для фиксации прибыли, что приводит к сбросу акции. Неопределенность на рынке была усилена и отсутствием значимой макроэкономической отчетности. Кроме того, серьезные опасения вызывает и перспектива еще больших потерь компаний финансового сектора в результате ипотечного и кредитного кризиса.

Но ситуация резко поменялась после того, как CNBC сообщил, что уже в начале следующей недели может быть представлен план, который позволит крупным страховщикам облигаций сохранить свой высокий кредитный рейтинг AAA. По данным Financial Times, крупные банки, включая Citigroup Inc. &copy;, Wachovia Corp. (WB) и Barclays Plc готовы предоставить от $2 млрд. до $3 млрд. компании Ambac (ABK), второй крупнейшей компании страхования облигаций в США. Акции Ambac взлетели на $1,48, или на 16%, до $10,71.

За ними подтянулись и акции других компаний финансового сектора. Котировки акций MBIA Inc. (MBI), крупнейшего в мире страховщика облигаций, поднялись на $0,28, или на 2,4%, до $12,18. Бумаги страховой компании AIG (AIG) прибавили $1,29, или 2,7%, и закрылись на отметке $48,88. Акции JPMorgan (JPM), третьего крупнейшего банка в Соединенных Штатах, подорожали на $0,86, или на 2%, до $43,93, хотя внутри дня их падение достигало 2,7%.

В целом, на Нью-йоркской фондовой бирже, NYSE, число выросших акций превысило упавших в соотношении 3 к 2. Соотношение выросших и упавших акций на электронной площадке Nasdaq было примерно равным. Обороты на NYSE были средними – 1,4 млрд. акций. На электронной площадке Nasdaq обороты составили более 1 млрд. акций.

 

<b>РБК Daily</b>

<!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><div align="center"><b><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro-->Жириновскому простили побои<!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></b></div><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec-->
<i><div align="center">Такие теледебаты и нужны ЦИК</div></i>


Жириновского не снимут с выборов за попытку избить доверенное лицо соперника. Как заявил сегодня секретарь ЦИК Николай Конкин, Центризбирком не намерен обращаться в суд с инициативой о снятии с регистрации кандидата в президенты России Владимира Жириновского из-за того, что тот в прямом телеэфире побил доверенное лицо другого кандидата в президенты – Андрея Богданова. Комментарий главы ЦИК Владимира Чурова заставил наблюдателей задуматься о судьбе дебатов в России в принципе.

Инцидент произошел 20 февраля во время прямого эфира на телеканале «Звезда» дебатов кандидатов в президенты РФ. Страсти начали накаляться после того, как один из участников дебатов (им оказался Николай Гоца – доверенное лицо Андрея Богданова) уличил Владимира Жириновского в «предательстве» при голосовании в Госдуме. <b>«С придурком я сидеть не могу в одном зале! Это же типичный придурок! Посмотрите ему в глаза! Это же больной человек, как и его кандидат в президенты!» </b>– грубо прервал говорившего лидер ЛДПР. Далее сюжет развивался стремительно.

<b>«В Госдуме, уважаемый придурок кандидата в президенты, мы голосовали так, как считали нужным! Это ЛДПР! И я – ее руководитель! И вам, подлецу, не позволю говорить о том, кто кого предает! – распалялся Жириновский – За вашу партию придурков и сумасшедших проголосовало меньше 1% избирателей!». </b>Владимира Вольфовича вяло пытались остановить ведущие дебатов, но это уже было бесполезно. <b>«Посмотрите на его лицо! Это же больной человек! Шизоид! Любой психиатр скажет, что он – сумасшедший!»</b> – продолжал он. В таком тоне «дискуссия» в одни ворота длилась несколько минут. «Вы закончили уже?» – попробовал вклиниться в оскорбительный спич объект оскорблений Гоца. <b>«Гонг будет звенеть! Придурок! Уши еще не работают у тебя?!»</b> – отозвался Жириновский.

«Дебаты» закончились еще «веселее», чем начались, что засвидетельствовала не выключенная после эфира камера. <b>«Пошел вон из студии! Я сказал, пошел вон! Пошел отсюда на …, подонок! Ща как размозжу тебе всю голову!»</b> – вопил Жириновский, пытаясь дать оплеуху доверенному лицу микрофоном. Доверенное лицо вжималось в стул, уходить отказывалось и твердило: «Я подам на вас в суд».

Больше всего в живописной картине избиения поразила реакция ведущих. Они мялись, наблюдая, как один кандидат в президенты пытается дать в ухо доверенному лицу другого, цикали, окали, но охрану звать даже не собирались. Ничего не предприняли ведущие «дебатов», даже когда по команде Жириновского к доверенному лицу подошел охранник из ЛДПР, а сам Жириновский, воспользовавшись моментом, довольно сильно толкнул оппонента в спину. Далее за кадром послышались удары, но даже это не вывело ведущих из состояния абсолютной невозмутимости.

Такая реакция и весь сюжет выглядели как провокация, на реализацию которой Жириновский, многократно устраивавший драки в парламенте, подходит как нельзя лучше. Но еще больше реакции ведущих «порадовал» комментарий Владимира Чурова, который тот дал после скандала одной из радиостанций. <b>«Это не то веселье, которого мы бы хотели. Это лишний раз подтверждает, что у нас не умеют организовывать дебаты. Не умеют организовывать дебаты, потому что при нормальной организации дебатов ничего подобного произойти не может и не должно», </b>– философски заметил г-н Чуров.

В свете последних отказов от дебатов некоторых высокопоставленных лиц подобный инцидент играет на руку прежде всего модераторам выборов. Теперь на возмущение оппонентов тем, что кто-то из власть предержащих (ставших кандидатами) отказывается приходить на дебаты, ЦИК вполне закономерно может привести в пример скандал, организованный Владимиром Жириновским на телеканале «Звезда». Страшно предположить, что было бы, если б на месте доверенного лица Андрея Богданова был Дмитрий Медведев...


ТАТЬЯНА КОСОБОКОВА

22.02.2008

 

<b>РБК Dayli </b>

<!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><b>Citi уполномочен заявить</b><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec-->

<i><div align="center">Весной в России может случиться кризис ликвидности</div></i>

Согласно исследованию инвестбанка Citi, опубликованному в конце прошлой недели, банковский сектор России в ближайшие два месяца столкнется с рублевым дефицитом в результате существенных выплат по внешнему корпоративному долгу в марте и квартальных налоговых выплат в апреле. Аналитики Citi практически подтвердили в цифрах прогнозы первого зампреда ЦБ Алексея Улюкаева, ожидающего, что в марте—апреле будет пик рефинансирования банковской системы, который потребует до 300—400 млрд руб. ежедневно.

Как говорится с исследовании Citi «Российский банковский сектор: Будет ли еще один кризис ликвидности?», в марте российский рынок ожидает скачок объема выплат по заимствованиям, в том числе и по суверенному долгу. По оценкам аналитиков банка, выплаты могут составить порядка 10 млрд долл. в марте, при этом наибольший объем выплат приходится на долги «Роснефти» (5,7 млрд долл.) и Evraz Group (1,8 млрд долл.). Стоит отметить, что такой же скачок по выплате долгов российскими компаниями наблюдался в ноябре 2007 го­да, когда был зафиксирован рекорд по объемам однодневного РЕПО между банками и ЦБ, составивший 300 млрд руб. Следующая пиковая нагрузка по обслуживанию долгов предстоит в сентябре этого года, когда объем выплат составит уже больше 12 млрд долл.

Кроме того, как отмечается в исследовании Citi, в апреле ожидаются серьезные налоговые выплаты по итогам квартала. «Обычно российский банковский сектор находится под некоторым прессом недостатка ликвидности в период налоговых выплат. Несколько факторов делают апрель трудным месяцем в перспективе налоговых выплат», говорится в исследовании Citi. Основным фактором роста налоговых выплат станет новый механизм сбора НДС. «В результате в апреле российские корпорации совершат выплаты НДС за целый квартал в отличие от помесячной оплаты налога в 2007 году», — подчеркивают аналитики Citi, оценивая объем выплат по НДС в 400—600 млрд руб.

Впрочем, аналитик банка «Траст» Владимир Брагин более оптимистичен в оценках оттока средств в бюджет. «По нашим подсчетам, в марте пойдут еще обратные платежи из бюджета, в результате чего бюджет оттянет с рынка не 600 млрд руб., а только 300 млрд руб.», — говорит г-н Брагин. По его словам, не стоит забывать, что поддержку уровню ликвидности может оказать и приток экспортной выручки, которую пока трудно оценить. При этом, согласно исследованию Citi, уровень ликвидности банковской системы на сегодняшний день составляет порядка 800 млрд руб. Таким образом, выплаты по долгам и налогам (общая сумма составляет также 800 млрд руб.) «потенциально могут полностью свести на нет существующую ликвидность». Кроме того, по словам начальника отдела межбанковского кредитования МДМ-банка Давида Киквидзе, с марта этого года ЦБ повысил нормативы обязательного резервирования, что может увести из системы еще несколько десятков миллиардов рублей. Ранее Алексей Улюкаев оценивал изъятие ликвидности в результате повышения нормативов резервирования в 77 млрд руб., однако, по его словам, в целом отток составит около 22 млрд руб., поскольку были повышены и коэффициенты усреднения.

Тем не менее, несмотря на угрожающие прогнозы по оттоку ликвидности в марте—апреле, аналитики Citi настроены оптимистично, веря, что Банк России и правительство обладают достаточно эффективными ресурсами для впрыскивания необходимой ликвидности в банковский сектор. ЦБ может предоставить ликвидность через операции РЕПО на 1,6 трлн руб., а со счетов федерального казначейства в коммерческие банки могут быть переведены средства около 1 трлн руб. «Бывали времена и похуже. Конечно, все ждут ухудшения ситуации на рынке ликвидности, но самое главное, что все к этому готовятся, аккумулируя средства», — отмечает начальник аналитического отдела казначейства банка ВТБ Николай Кащеев.

ПОЛИНА СМОРОДСКАЯ

26.02.2008

 

<b>www.k2kapital.com 26.02.2008 </b>

<div align="center"><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><b>11 причин, по которым рецессия Бернанки продлится до 2011 года</b><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--></div>

Помните популярную песенку 1973 года, в которой поется, что “клоуны слева, шутники справа, а между ними я, я больше не выдержу”, спрашивает читателей обозреватель агентства Marketwatch Пол Фаррелл (Paul Farrell). Примечательно, что эта метафора не потеряла актуальность и в наши дни. Достаточно вспомнить выступления в Конгрессе. Слева глава Федеральной резервной системы Бен Бернанки (Ben Bernanke), справа министр финансов Генри Полсон (Henry Paulson), а между ними американцы – знакомая картина, не правда ли?

Летом 2007 года они убеждали своих слушателей в том, что кризис в секторе ипотечного кредитования заемщиков с низким кредитным рейтингом удалось “обуздать”. Однако все теперь все убедились, что это совсем не так. Они только что заявили в Конгрессе, что “Америка сможет избежать рецессии”, хотя статистика свидетельствует об обратном. Клоуны слева … шутники справа .. я между ними … я больше не могу. Однако придется все же это выдержать.

“Тяжелые времена для фондовых рынков могут длиться годами”, - заключает профессиональный журнал для финансовых советников InvestmentNews. Следовательно возникает вопрос: Когда же “быки” возьмут свое? Сколько еще на рынке будут царить “медвежьи” настроения? Завершится ли такая ситуация в 2008 году или растянется до 2011, как это было в 2000-2002 годах?

Вопросов много, ответы на них получить представляется весьма проблематичной задачей. Остается надеяться только на себя. Marketwatch приводит 11 важных факторов, которые могут помочь читателям разобраться в ситуации и самим определить сроки завершения непростых для американской экономики времен.

<b>1. Стагфляция: последняя соломинка Бернанке не поможет</b>

Новая книга Вильяма Флекенштейна (William Fleckenstein), пристально следящего за политикой ФРС, “Пузыри Гринспена: Век невежеста Федрезерва” (Greenspan's Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve), дает читателю понять, что на протяжении 18-ти лет американской банковской системой управляли, как коммуной хиппи “нового времени”. В воздухе чувствовался дух свободы и чувство, что “все пройдет, все наладится”.

Сейчас ФРС возглавляет профессор, который, по словам Флекенштейна, “ни в чем не может разобраться”. В его руках реальная экономика в $13 трлн., занимающая далеко не последнее место в этом 48-триллионном мире. Проблема в том, что это не семинар по экономической теории, а реальность.

В 70-ые годы США уже сталкивались с проблемой замедления экономического роста, но опыт тех лет доказал, что смягчение денежно-кредитной политики ведет к увеличению инфляции, а не роста. Стагфляция положила начало рецессии. Теперь история повторяется?

<b>2. Спад в секторе жилищного кредитования: нам еще многое предстоит пережить!</b>

Годы невостребованных товарно-материальных запасов, лишения права выпуска закладных, замедления в секторе жилищного строительства, сомнительных страховщиков облигаций, слабых рейтинговых агентств, фондов, имеющих ненадежные долговые обязательства. Реалисты уверены, что в таких условиях Америке необходима программа по спасению экономики стоимостью $1,6 трлн., а не $160 млрд., предложенные президентом Джорджем Бушем (George Bush).

<b>3.Сырье: новая мировая “валюта” теперь вовсе не доллар</b>

Забудьте бумажные деньги и долговые расписки. Новой мировой “валютой” стало сырье. Нефть, металлы, золото, сюда же можно прибавить зерно. Ради нефти и пластиковых игрушек, Америка финансирует рост других рынков, а не свой собственный. В результате Россия и Китай набирают силу, обретая статус мировых держав.

<b>4. Производные инструменты: мировая бомба стоимостью $516 трлн. с включенным часовым механизмом</b>

С учетом мирового ВВП, составляющего $48 трлн., деривативы представляют собой хороший инструмент при последовательном управлении риском от сделки к сделке. Однако стоит использовать их 10 раз подряд при совершении сделок в разных уголках мира, и мы получим финансовое “оружие массового разрушения экономики”.

Глава одной из крупнейших в мире компаний по управлению активами - Pacific Investment Management Company, или PIMCO, Билл Гросс (Bill Gross) предупреждает, что новый мировой рынок различных производных инструментов, или “shadow banking system”, печатает новые деньги, объем которых уже составляет $516 трлн. При этом ни один центральный банк мира не сможет их обеспечить.

<b>5. Огромные долги: торговые, федеральные, государственные, местные</b>

Американцы тратят деньги, влезают в долги, бремя которых неизбежно ляжет на будущие поколения. Американцы продолжают тратить, с вот уже звучат предположения о возможном “банкротстве Америки”.

<b>6. Новый “двигатель” Америки: банки спешат на помощь желаниям потребителей</b>

“Никогда нельзя недооценивать склонность американцев к огромным расходам, – верно отмечает издание Trader’s Daily, - Когда не осталось наличных, они способны продать душу. Лучше даже не задумываться, к чему может привести подобное пристрастие к потреблению и чем это грозит рынку кредитных карт”. Люди все время хотят большего и начинают жить по принципу “трать сегодня, как будто завтра не настанет никогда”, обращаясь за новыми кредитами и не часто даже не задумываясь о том, каким образом будут впоследствии их выплачивать. Между тем, спад на рынке кредитов заставляет банки отчаянно искать наличные средства.

<b>7. И снова войны: Пентагон пророчит более значительные и затратные конфликты</b>

Исследования, проведенные специалистами американского оборонного ведомства, свидетельствуют о том, что количество военных конфликтов в мире будет только возрастать. Поводом к этому, по мнению экспертов, могут послужить и рост населения Земли, и ограниченные запасы полезных ископаемых, и глобальное потепление. Пентагону уже удалось получить более 50% средств в новом федеральном бюджете. Американская экономика составляет 21% от общего мирового ВВП, при этом расходы на оборону в США составляют 47% от общих мировых расходов на эту сферу.

Фаррелл считает, что стремление американцев к мировому господству разрушает нацию изнутри. Невольно вспоминается предостережение политолога и писателя времен президента Ричарда Никсона (Richard Nixon) Кевина Филлипса (Kevin Phillips), сказавшего, что “многие нации на пике экономической мощи становились надменными и самоуверенными и начинали вести войны большие войны. Они не жалели огромные средства, растрачивали зря огромные ресурсы, влезали в долги и в конце концов приходили в упадок”.

<b>8. Жадность: “справедливая цена” Уолл-стрит и корпоративной Америки</b>

Определение стоимости начинается наверху, но верхушка не изменится в течение 10 месяцев. Дух лидерства, искусство управления и характер постепенно исчезают. Лишь пять лет назад корпоративная Америка уже была во власти жадности, но видимо урок не пошел впрок.

В настоящий момент жадность захватила не только главных исполнительных директоров с Уолл-стрит, но и всю индустрию. Достаточно сказать об огромных бонусах, которые обеспечиваются путем многомиллиардных списаний и продажи американских акций по привлекательной цене суверенным нациям. Жадность обеспечивает Америке образование одного пузыря за другим. Операции на волатильном рынке могут привести к формированию очередного пузыря.

<b>9. Провал демократии: Америкой управляют лоббисты</b>

По мнению Фаррелла, нужно забыть о правительстве “людей и для людей”. “Невидимая рука” Адама Смита (Adam Smith) теперь представляет собой небольшую группу высокооплачиваемых людей, насчитывающую всего 35 тыс. человек, которые, в свою очередь, трудятся на благо 537 избранников, представляющих американские власти. Политики рассуждают о “переменах”, но лоббисты продолжат свою работу и будут всячески и дальше препятствовать каким-либо “изменениям”.

<b>10. Америка уже находится в состоянии рецессии</b>

США уже находятся в состоянии рецессии, а выборы, которые состоятся в текущем году, приведут лишь к затягиванию этого процесса. Неизбежный уход администрации нынешнего президента отсрочит принятие мер, направленных на решение насущных вопросов. Независимо от исхода голосования восстановление американской экономики придется отложить до 2009 года, а возобновление роста фондовых рынков – на 2010 или даже 2011 год.

<b>11. Классовая борьба: супербогачи и уличная Америка</b>

Независимо от того, кто выиграет президентские выборы, уже сейчас можно с уверенностью сказать, что борьба между “богатыми и остальными”, касающаяся налогов, прибыли и власти, останется. На протяжении многих лет “Новая американская мечта”, предполагающая, что заработать и получить достаток может каждый. Жилье, акции, прибыль, индивидуальные пенсионные планы – все эти мечты в одночасье разрушил кредитный кризис. В итоге богатые продолжают приумножать свое богатство, чего никак нельзя сказать об “остальных”.

 

<b>The New York Times

03.03.08</b>

<div align="center"><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><b>SIGNALS ON THE ECONOMY</b><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--></div>

Economic news will dominate the week, punctuated by the unemployment report for February (Friday).

Other reports include the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index for February and construction spending for January (Monday); the Federal Reserve beige book, revised fourth-quarter productivity, factory orders for January and the I.S.M. service index (Wednesday); and consumer credit for January (Friday).

EARNINGS REPORTS Earnings start to tail off, with reports coming from BP and Take-Two Interactive Software (Tuesday); BJ's Wholesale Club, Costco Wholesale, H&R Block, Saks, TiVo and Trump Entertainment Resorts (Wednesday); Blockbuster (Thursday); and Volkswagen (Friday).

COMPANY MEETINGSPfizer will have a meeting with analysts in New York (Wednesday).

Intel will have its annual analysts' meeting in Santa Clara, Calif. (Wednesday and Thursday).

Walt Disney will have its annual shareholder meeting in Albuquerque (Thursday).

INDUSTRY REPORTS Retailers will report same-store sales for February (Thursday).

Automakers will report their February sales (Monday).

THE REGULATORS The consumer advisory council of the Federal Reserve will meet in Washington to discuss mortgage lending and disclosure rules (Thursday).

The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform will conduct a hearing on executive compensation and the mortgage crisis (Friday).

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet in Vienna (Wednesday). They are expected to maintain production quotas.

Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, will speak at the Independent Community Bankers of America's National Convention and Techworld in Orlando, Fla. (Tuesday).

 

<b>Yahoo Finance</b>

<div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>Bernanke Calls for More Mortgage Relief</b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>
Tuesday March 4, 4:49 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke Says More Needs to Be Done to Prevent Home Foreclosures


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Battling a dangerous wave of home foreclosures, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called Tuesday for additional relief and urged lenders to help distressed owners by lowering the amount of their loans.

"This situation calls for a vigorous response (энергичный ответ)," Bernanke said in a speech to a banking group meeting in Orlando, Fla.

Even with some relief efforts under way by industry and government, foreclosures and late payments on home mortgages are likely to rise "for a while longer," Bernanke warned.

Rising foreclosures threaten to worsen the problems in the housing market and for the national economy, which many fear is on the verge of a recession or in one already.

"Reducing the rate of preventable foreclosures would promote economic stability for households, neighborhoods and the nation as a whole," Bernanke said. "Although lenders and servicers have scaled up their efforts and adopted a wider variety of loss-mitigation techniques, more can, and should, be done," the Fed chief said.

<b>One of the suggestions Bernanke made was for mortgage and other financial companies to reduce the amount of the loan to provide relief to a struggling owner.</b> "Principal reductions that restore some equity for the homeowner may be a relatively more effective means of avoiding delinquency and foreclosure," Bernanke said.

Bernanke acknowledged this idea might be a tough sell to lenders. Lenders, he said, are reluctant to write down principal. "They say that if they were to write down the principal and house prices were to fall further, they could feel pressured to write down principal again," Bernanke said.

Bill Stevens, chief executive officer of CapitalBank in Greenwood, S.C., said: "We've been talking about it as bankers. It's a tough business decision."

Tom Loonan, vice president of the State Bank of Easton in Minnesota, suggested that debt relief for some who got in over their heads may anger others, who took out mortgages that they could afford. "There's going to be some animosity," he said.

Still, Bernanke suggested such longer-term permanent solutions may work better than shorter-term and temporary ones, where the distressed homeowner could find himself in trouble again. "When the mortgage is `under water' a reduction in principal may increase the expected payoff by reducing the risk of default and foreclosure," he said.

On Wall Street, anxious investors pulled the Dow Jones industrials down 45.10 points.

To date, permanent home mortgage modifications that have occurred have typically involved a reduction in the interest rate, while reductions of the principal balance of the loan have been quite rare, he said.

"Measures that lead to a sustainable outcome are to be preferred to temporary palliatives, which may only put off foreclosure and perhaps increase its ultimate costs," Bernanke said.

Brookly McLaughlin, spokeswoman for the Treasury Department, which has been leading the Bush administration's relief efforts, noted that foreclosures are expensive for both lenders and homeowners, giving parties an incentive to renegotiate a mortgage contract. However, "we're not going to dictate how those renegotiations should be accomplished," she said. "If lenders find that in some cases a principal writedown is less costly than foreclosure, then that is an option they have the incentive to consider."

More than half of the projected 1.5 million home foreclosure proceedings started in 2007 were on subprime loans given to borrowers with blemished credit histories or low incomes.

The housing collapse dragged down home values, clobbering these subprime borrowers. Many were left with mortgages that exceeded the value of their homes. They were further socked by low introductory rates on their adjustable mortgages resetting to higher rates, making their monthly payments difficult or impossible, to afford. Problems in the credit markets have made refinancing a mortgage harder.

This year, about 1.5 million loans -- representing more than 40 percent of the outstanding stock of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages -- are scheduled to reset to higher rates, Bernanke said. The Fed estimates that the interest rate on a typical subprime ARM slated to reset in the current quarter will increase to about 9.25 percent from just above 8 percent. That would raise the monthly payment by more than 10 percent, to $1,500 on average, he said.

Declines in short-term interest rates and a Bush administration initiative involving rate freezes will "reduce the impact somewhat, but interest rate resets will nevertheless impose stress on many households," Bernanke said.

Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., also said it's important to think long-term. "Repayment plans or brief deferrals of payments will not allow us to get past our current problems. They are analogous to `kicking the can down the road,'" she told lawmakers Tuesday.

On Capitol Hill, a number of measures have been offered to help stressed homeowners.

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, welcomed Bernanke's call for more action. "It is now clear that we will not be able to avert a more serious and prolonged economic slowdown if we don't address the problem of increasing mortgage foreclosures," Frank said. "Bernanke's willingness to work with us in a cooperative way, and his outline of the principles that we should be applying are very hopeful signs."

Associated Press Writer Travis Reed contributed to this report from Orlando, Fla.

 

<b>Yahoo Finance</b>

<div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>Yahoo Scrambles to Block Microsoft Deal</b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>

<div align="center"><i>Yahoo Delays Date for Nominating Directors As Company Continues to Resist Microsoft Takeover </i></div>

SUNNYVALE, Calif. (AP) -- Yahoo Inc. has extended a deadline for nominating candidates to its board, giving the struggling Internet pioneer more time to search for a white knight to help it fight off an unwanted takeover bid from Microsoft Corp.

The announcement Wednesday comes amid published reports that Yahoo has stepped up discussions with Time Warner Inc. about acquiring or forming a joint venture with its AOL online unit to fend off the world's largest software company.

Microsoft's bid, originally valued at $44.6 billion, or $31 per share, was made public Feb. 1. Yahoo has rejected the offer as too low, and it was expected Microsoft would nominate its own slate to the Yahoo board to push the deal through.

Yahoo said the deadline for nominations would be 10 days after it announces the date of its annual shareholder meeting. The previous deadline was March 14.

In a statement, Yahoo said the extension would allow its board "to continue to explore all of its strategic alternatives for maximizing value for stockholders without the distraction of a proxy contest."

Yahoo and AOL declined comment on the reports Wednesday in The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times that Yahoo and Time Warner have stepped up discussions over AOL.

One scenario calls for Yahoo to acquire AOL outright with Time Warner taking a minority stake in the combined company, the Journal reported, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter.

The Times, citing unnamed people close to Yahoo, said a Yahoo-AOL combination has the backing of Google Inc., which owns 5 percent of AOL LLC. and fears a Microsoft takeover of Yahoo.

A Yahoo-AOL combination would create a stronger advertising-driven business that could ultimately compete with Internet search and advertising leader Google.

Both AOL and Yahoo have strengths in emerging technologies for targeting ads based on users' Web surfing patterns, an approach that Google so far has shunned in favor of contextual, keyword-based placements.

Yahoo also has been in discussions media conglomerate News Corp., the owner of the popular online hangout MySpace, a person familiar with the situation told The Associated Press.

Yahoo and Time Warner have talked about a combination before, but the idea was rejected in 2005 because Time Warner at the time insisted that it retain majority ownership in the AOL unit, two people close to those discussions told the AP.

On Wednesday, shares of Yahoo gained 29 cents, or 1 percent, to $28.35, while Microsoft increased 51 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $28.10. Time Warner stock advanced 14 cents to $15.43, and Google share jumped $6.56, or 1.5 percent, to $451.16.

 

<b>Reuters</b>

<div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>Ambac raising at least $1.5 bln of new capital</b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>

By Dan Wilchins


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc (NYSE:ABK - News) said on Wednesday it plans to sell at least $1.5 billion of stock and convertible securities, to help preserve the top-tier credit ratings critical for its main insurance business.

New capital would give the second-largest U.S. bond insurer more funds to cover the billions of dollars of claims it could face after insuring subprime mortgage bonds and other risky debt.

<b>But investors were disappointed in the news, because to some it signaled that banks were not committing their own funds to help rescue Ambac, after weeks of negotiations.</b>

"It looks like they had a close look at what was going on at Ambac, and they backed away. Things may be bad there," said Peter Kovalski, portfolio manager at Alpine Woods Capital Investors, which owns Ambac shares.

Ambac's shares fell 13.1 percent in afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange to $9.32. <b>The shares have fallen about 90 percent since the start of 2007.</b>

Ambac said it was launching offerings of at least $1 billion of common stock and at least $500 million of equity units.

Ambac is making other moves to strengthen capital, including slashing its dividend and suspending selling new insurance on repackaged debt known as "structured finance."

"We expect to be better positioned to take advantage of the current favorable market environment for credit enhancement," Chief Executive Michael Callen said in a statement.

Boosting capital levels is meant to help Ambac's main unit, Ambac Assurance, retain its top credit ratings.

<b>Fitch Ratings has already stripped the Ambac Assurance Corp unit of its "AAA" ratings, and said on Wednesday that raising another $1.5 billion would help Ambac Assurance remain at its "AA" level.

Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's said that if Ambac raised the additional capital, they would likely affirm Ambac Assurance's "triple-A" ratings.</b>

Even if S&P affirmed its ratings for Ambac Assurance, the agency said it might leave the company on "negative" outlook, reflecting the potential for more mortgage market deterioration (ухудшение).

(Reporting by Dan Wilchins; editing by John Wallace and Gerald E. McCormick)

 

<b>РБК Daily</b>

<div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>Yahoo! не сдается</b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>

<div align="center"><i>Компания тянет время и ведет переговоры с Time Warner</i></div>

Yahoo! получила временную передышку в борьбе за независимость от Microsoft, сдвинув дедлайн по выдвижению кандидатур в совет директоров. Вчера стало известно, что компания ведет активные переговоры об объединении с Time Warner. Если корпорациям хватит времени для того, чтобы договориться о слиянии в ближайшее время, Yahoo! удастся избежать нежелательного поглощения со стороны Microsoft.

Переговоры с Time Warner находятся в активной фазе и уже близки к завершению, сообщает The Wall Street Journal. Если сделка состоится, в состав Yahoo! войдет компания AOL, принадлежащая Time Warner. Yahoo! в свою очередь отдаст Time Warner часть своих акций, в результате чего вторая получит крупный миноритарный пакет в объединенной компании. По мнению источников, близких к участникам сделки, слияние компаний в целом позитивно отразится на состоянии Yahoo! и AOL: во-первых, оно позволит компаниям экономить 1 млрд долл. в год на издержках, а во-вторых, способствует созданию новой гигантской рекламной площадки в Сети.

В феврале Microsoft сделала предложение Yahoo! о покупке ее бизнеса, предложив 31 долл. за акцию, на 62% выше их стоимости по итогам торгов 31 января. Крупнейший производитель программного обеспечения оценил интернет-компанию в 44,6 млрд долл., на 20 млрд долл. больше рыночной капитализации Yahoo!.

Однако в совете директоров Yahoo! посчитали, что цена, предложенная Microsoft, занижена, и отказались от сделки. В ответ Microsoft объявила о готовности к недружественному поглощению.

С тех пор предложение упало в цене из-за снижения стоимости акций Microsoft на рынке (часть сделки должна была быть оплачена ими). Теперь, если поглощение все-таки состоится, оно обойдется Microsoft в 41,2 млрд. долл.

Microsoft может предложить своих кандидатов в совет директоров Yahoo! не позднее 14 марта. Именно на этот день было назначено очередное собрание акционеров компании. Однако вчера Yahoo! сообщила о переносе собрания на другой день. Новую дату собрания компания обещала объявить в течение ближайших 10 дней. По законам штата Дэлавер, где зарегистрирована компания Yahoo!, акционерное общество должно проводить встречи акционеров хотя бы каждые 13 месяцев с момента последней встречи совета директоров. Предыдущее собрание совета директоров Yahoo! состоялось 12 июня 2007 года. Так что в запасе у компании есть еще три месяца.

«Наиболее вероятный сценарий — Yahoo! попытается выиграть время», — приводит The New York Times слова Карла Тобиаса, профессора права из Университета в Ричмонде. По словам Тобиаса, дополнительное время поможет Yahoo! найти других партнеров и убедить Microsoft повысить ставки. Однако по мнению большинства аналитиков, сообщает The New York Times, акционерам Yahoo! более интересно предложение Microsoft, чем кого-либо еще. С ними, естественно, согласен и гендиректор Microsoft Стив Баллмер, заявивший в понедельник, что сделка Microsoft и Yahoo! «выгодна для обеих компаний и их акционеров». Он подчеркнул, что хотя предложение кажется ему выгодным для обеих сторон, «возможен диалог» между компаниями, который позволит достичь договоренности.

В числе возможных «спасителей» Yahoo! помимо Time Warner ранее фигурировал Google. Информация о возможной продаже 20% акций Yahoo! этой компании распространилась сразу после объявления Microsoft о готовности ее купить. Две недели назад Yahoo! обратилась с предложением объединения к News Corp., владельцем которой является медиамагнат Руперт Мердок. Переговоры о слиянии социальной сети MySpace (входящей в состав News Corp) с Yahoo! в обмен на 20% акций компании ведутся до сих пор.


ЕЛИЗАВЕТА СЕРЬГИНА

06.03.2008

 

<b>B&FM 07.03.08</b>

 

Из женщин Елена Батурина тоже в списке с 4 миллиардами с хвостом. ^secret^

 

Ну еще бы Как же без нее

<b>Yahoo Finance</b>

<div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>Stocks Tumble Following Jobs Report</b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>

Friday March 7, 2:34 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer

<i><div align="center">Stocks Fall Sharply After Weaker-Than-Expected Jobs Report; Fed Moves to Ease Credit Concerns </div></i>

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks tumbled for a second consecutive session Friday after the government's much-anticipated February jobs report revealed employers slashed payrolls last month, touching off concern that a cornerstone of the economy's growth in recent years is showing signs of strain. The Dow Jones industrials fell more than 200 points, bringing their two-day slide to more than 400.
The decline came despite the Federal Reserve's announcement that it would take steps to aid the credit markets.

The Labor Department's report that employers cut jobs by 63,000 last month -- the most since March 2003 -- unnerved investors worried about the health of the economy and who had been expecting a 25,000 gain in jobs. While the unemployment rate fell to 4.8 percent, the decline reflects people leaving the labor force.

The payroll numbers arrived minutes after the Federal Reserve announced it would take fresh steps to ease credit troubles, including boosting the amount of money it will auction to banks.

The central bank said it will increase the size of its March 10 and 24 auctions to banks to $50 billion each. The auctions had been slated for $30 billion apiece and Fed officials said subsequent auctions could be bigger if need be. The Fed also said that it would begin a series of repurchase transactions expected to reach $100 billion.

Craig Peckham, an equity trading strategist at Jefferies & Co., said <b>besides the weak job figures, investors were worried about an apparent lack of effectiveness of the Fed's campaign.</b>

"There is a growing sense that the Fed is trying to pull out all the stops and use all the tools they have but with little net effect," he said. "It just doesn't appear to be the quick-fix that investors had been hoping for. What we've seen is people continuing to press very bearish bets."

In midafternoon trading, the Dow fell 203.44, or 1.69 percent, to 11,836.95. On Thursday, the Dow's 214-point drop came on resurgent concerns about the health of the credit markets.

Broader stock indicators also declined. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 17.68, or 1.36 percent, to 1,286.66, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 26.52, or 1.19 percent, to 2,193.98.

On Friday, declining issues outnumbered advancers by nearly 3 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.04 billion shares.

Bond prices jumped as investors sought defensive positions amid concerns about the economy. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.52 percent from 3.59 percent late Thursday.

The dollar hit a fresh record low against the euro following release of the payroll numbers, while gold prices fell.

Light, sweet crude rose 12 cents to $105.59 per barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange after the jobs report.

Wall Street had been eager for a read on the jobs picture. While unemployment remains low by historical standards the increase in unemployment stirred concern among investors worried that it will result in a consumer slowdown. The well-being of the consumer, whose spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, is key to investors' hopes of avoiding more economic pain amid the ongoing pullback in home values and credit troubles.

Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates, said the job losses in February weren't surprising.

"The trend for the last year and a half has been either job losses or very small gains. That is what you would expect in a contracting economy and <b>we think the economy has been in a recession for two or three months</b>," he said.

The employment figures came a day after concerns about home foreclosures and credit woes rippled across Wall Street. The start of the week had been relatively quiet. While investors chewed over a slew of economic data, the major indexes didn't end the first three sessions of the week with huge changes. While the closing numbers belied some of the volatility Wall Street had to contend with in the early part of the week, investors' indecision turned to fear Thursday when credit concerns took on new life.

The week also saw the dollar continue to drop, helping push several commodities to record highs. Many commodities are traded in dollars and so a weak greenback can make their prices rise. Gold, often regarded as a defensive investment, surged to near the psychological benchmark of $1,000 an ounce.

The Fed's plans announced Friday seemed to shore up investor confidence early in the session -- briefly sending stocks higher -- but failed to quell Wall Street's nervousness about the economy.

Steven Lehman of Federated Investors was doubtful of the effectiveness of the Fed's efforts.

<b>"There is a profound lack of understanding of markets and economies, and there is still persistent lingering faith that the authorities effectively have a magic wand they can wave to make everything fine," he said. "Economies and markets do go down -- particularly after a multi-decade credit boom."</b>

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 4.69, or 0.71 percent, to 658.09.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed down 3.27 percent after Wall Street's decline. Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 1.15 percent, Germany's DAX index lost 1.17 percent, and France's CAC-40 slid 1.26 percent.

 

<b>The New York Times</b>

<div align="center"><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro-->Downturn Tests The Fed's Ability To Avert a Crisis <!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--></div>

By VIKAS BAJAJ
09.03.08

In the last seven months, policy makers have cut interest rates, injected money into the banking system and approved a fiscal stimulus package in an effort to keep the economy from slipping into a recession. Often, the moves seemed to work at first, only to be overtaken by more bad news.

The failure of any of the usual fiscal and monetary policy tools so far raises questions about what the Federal Reserve and federal government can do in the near term to counter the forces that have battered housing prices and pushed down the stock market and are now causing a hiring slowdown.

''There are times when there is only so much the Fed can do,'' said Barry Ritholtz, chief executive of FusionIQ, an investment firm in New York. ''It can smooth out the business cycle a little bit, but last I checked, we haven't done away with the business cycle.''

One of the main problems now is a deepening crisis of confidence (кризис доверия) that is compounding the ill effects from the housing downturn. <b>As lenders and businesses become more cautious about whom they lend to and hire, they are slowing an already weakened economy. </b>

<b>If the housing boom was a manifestation (пример) of irrational exuberance (иррационального изобилия), some say it has swung too far in the other direction, to irrational despondency (уныние, отчаяние и т.д.).</b>

''Banks went from giving money away like drunken sailors to not lending to the most credit-worthy borrowers,'' Mr. Ritholtz, who writes the popular economics blog The Big Picture, said.

The latest signs of panic in the markets came last week. <b>Banks began calling in loans they had made to hedge funds, mortgage companies and others, forcing them to sell billions of bonds.</b> The moves prompted concern about securities backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the large government-chartered buyers of mortgages that many investors believe have the implicit backing of the federal government.

When big investors are forced to quickly dump billions of dollars in securities, trading can seize up, especially when buyers are scarce, as they are now. Just a few weeks earlier, a similar bout of forced selling drove down the prices of municipal bonds issued by states and cities.

In mid-January, the Fed moved to arrest the crisis in the financial system after markets plunged around the world and a French bank announced a big trading loss; markets in the United States were closed because of a holiday. The Fed cut interest rates three-quarters of a point and cut them another half-point a week later at a scheduled meeting.

With the exception of a few days, the market rallied those two weeks, and investors even drove down mortgage interest rates, sending millions of homeowners shopping for new loans.

But the relief was short-lived. Mortgage interest rates headed back up almost immediately, and by early February the stock market was falling again after reports showed a drop in employment and a slackening in the service sector.

''The Fed rate cuts aren't doing anything for my clients except confuse them,'' Steve Walsh, a mortgage broker in the Phoenix area, wrote in an e-mail message at the end of January.

Fed officials would say that mortgage rates would be higher still had they done nothing. But given the shortcomings of the response so far, the Fed and members of Congress are working on more aggressive tactics.

<b>The Fed is expected to cut rates further when its policy-making committee meets next week. It will also increase the money it lends to banks in periodic auctions to $100 billion, from $30 billion. </b>

Fed officials have been meeting with aides to Representative Barney Frank, Democrat from Massachusetts, who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and has argued for more government intervention. The Fed supports some of the ideas Mr. Frank has been discussing, including having onerous (обременительный) mortgages refinanced and guaranteed through the Federal Housing Administration. But the central bank, at least so far, opposes the purchase of troubled loans by the federal government, an idea suggested by Mr. Frank and other Democrats.

Much of the focus will remain on housing, because policy makers and analysts think banks and investors will not regain confidence until the real estate market stabilizes. Uncertainty about how far home prices will fall has made banks less willing to lend and consumers reluctant to buy.

Banks are also unwilling to lend because they are worried they will not be paid back. <b>Nearly 7.9 percent of home loans were in foreclosure (лишение права выкупа закладной) or past due (или просрочены) at the end of last year, and most economists expect that more borrowers will encounter trouble. </b>

Some lenders are also trying to preserve their capital because they expect to have more losses. <b>Last week, Citibank said it would reduce its holdings of home loans by 20 percent. </b>

''Lenders can't lend in this environment because they fear they are not going to get paid back,'' said Daniel Alpert, a managing director at Westwood Capital, an investment bank in New York. ''And guys who own homes have no value left to hock (отдавать в залог).''

The interest rate on 30-year fixed mortgages is back above 6 percent, still historically low, after falling below 5.5 percent in December. <b>Banks are demanding bigger down payments and cutting off home equity lines of credit to borrowers, especially those who live in states where home prices are falling fastest. </b>

<b>Mr. Alpert and others see a parallel between the credit problems today in the United States and the economic crisis in Japan in the 1990s. In both cases, reckless lending and a bubble in real estate contributed to enormous losses and tightening of loans. </b>

<b>There are significant differences, however. American banks have been quick to recognize losses, and policy makers have moved to contain the damage and protect the broader economy. In Japan, many lenders did not write off bad loans and the central bank was much slower to respond. The 1990s is broadly seen as a ''lost decade'' for that country. </b>

<b>Mr. Alpert, who bought troubled loans from Japanese banks for pennies on the dollar, said that while American financial institutions are moving fast, policy makers should encourage or even force them to write down and restructure bad mortgages faster so they can get back to lending. </b>

<b>''If you fail to clean up the problem and take aggressive action, you are going to have years and years of stagnation as Japan did,'' he said. </b>

There are signs that the logjam (что-то типа затора, завала) in some markets is loosening as bargain hunters move in to take advantage of the turmoil (шум, беспорядок). When enough investors step in to buy beaten-down securities, it can restore confidence and make banks willing to lend more freely.

In the municipal bond market, for instance, prices rose steadily last week as retail investors and mutual funds bought bonds that distressed hedge funds were selling at deep discounts, said Douglas A. Dachille, the chief executive of First Principles Capital Management, a firm that specializes in bonds. Prices on one index compiled by The Bond Buyer, a trade publication, rose 5.7 percent last week after falling 6.2 percent in the last week of February.

That ''problem was solved,'' Mr. Dachille said Friday. ''By the end of this week, the muni market is functioning well again.''

 

<b>Yahoo Finance</b>

<div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>Stocks Shoot Higher on Fed Credit Plan</b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>

<div align="center"><i>Dow Jumps More Than 400 Points After Fed, Other Central Banks Move to Ease Credit Crisis</i></div>

Tuesday March 11, 4:59 pm ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street finally found a reason for a huge rally Tuesday after the <b>Federal Reserve said it plans to pump $200 billion into the financial markets to help ease the strain from the credit crisis.</b> The Dow Jones industrial average shot up more than 416 points, its biggest one-day point gain since July 2002.

The Fed's program is part of a worldwide effort to help struggling banks and mortgage providers. The Fed -- acting in concert with the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank -- agreed to loan investment banks money in exchange for debt, including slumping mortgage-backed securities.

The move is meant to essentially create a market for assets that investors have been too scared to buy. That freeze-up in demand had sent asset values plunging and caused huge losses for some of the world's biggest banks.

The decision by the Fed arrives after a series of hefty losses in stocks, noted Anthony Conroy, managing director and head trader for BNY ConvergEx Group. That, along with the unwinding of bets that the market would fall further, may have exaggerated the stock market's rebound. But the market is hopeful the central banks' decision Tuesday might be more effective than previous moves -- like rate cuts, which had elicited initial stock pops but then eventual skepticism about whether they would be enough to keep the economy out of a recession.

"It's not just a rate cut. I think it's a very creative way to do financing," Conroy said. <b>"It shows the Fed is willing to do things that are a little out-of-the-box to shore up credit issues. I really think they went to the heart of the issue."</b>

The latest step was seen as a direct lifeline to investment banks, which previously couldn't borrow in past Fed liquidity plans.

"The big problem has been the financials, and this helps supply money directly to the banks and may take some of the need for aggressive rate cutting off the table," said Peter Dunay, chief investment strategist at Meridian Equity Partners. "The Fed is basically going to take the bad loans off the banks' books, and the market seems to be loving that idea."

The central bank may have avoided dramatically slashing interest rates again when it meets next week. Economists remain concerned about the unrelenting rise in oil prices and the dollar's weakness, which contribute to inflation -- and cutting rates only add to these pressures.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow rose 416.66, or 3.55 percent, to 12,156.81. The index -- which lost more than 500 points in the last three sessions -- is still down about 2,000 points from its October 2007 record high. It was the biggest point jump in the Dow since its 447-point rise on July 29, 2002, and its widest percentage gain since closing up 3.59 percent on March 17, 2003.

Broader stock indicators also soared. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 47.28, or 3.71 percent, to 1,320.65, while the Nasdaq composite index surged 86.42, or 3.98 percent, to 2,255.76.

Government bond prices fell as stocks rallied. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, spiked to 3.60 percent from 3.46 percent late Monday.

Financial sector stocks, many of which have dipped to multi-year lows in recent days on liquidity concerns, led the market higher Tuesday.

Citigroup Inc. rose $1.42, or 7.2 percent, to $21.11, Washington Mutual Inc. rose $1.72, or 17 percent, to $11.76, and Bank of America Corp. rose $1.33, or 3.8 percent, to $36.64.

Morgan Stanley rose $4.19, or 10.9 percent, to $42.49, Lehman Brothers rose $3.33, or 7.8 percent, to $46.31, and Merrill Lynch rose $2.76, or 6.4 percent, to $45.60.

Bear Stearns Cos. rebounded from losses to rise 67 cents to $62.97, even after an analyst said the No. 5 U.S. investment bank might need to sell itself, or layoff more staff, to stay afloat. The cost to insure Bear Stearns bonds has been spiking to all-time highs. A spokesman for Bear Stearns didn't immediately return telephone calls.

<b>The central bank's plan basically allows Wall Street's biggest institutions to put up troubled assets as collateral for loans, use the new capital to make money in the market, and then pay back the loan up to 28 days later. </b>Though eventually banks would be forced to take the troubled mortgage-backed debt back on their books, the plan still takes short-term pressure off them. Many of these banks will release first-quarter earnings reports next week.

<b>The Fed's announcement overshadowed a report from the Commerce Department that showed the United States' trade deficit grew larger in January. The latest snapshot of the economy showed that the trade gap increased to $58.2 billion -- the highest since November.</b>

The primary reason behind the widening trade deficit is high oil prices. Crude rose as high as $109.72 in premarket trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange before ending at a new settlement record of $108.75. The weak dollar has contributed to oil's rally from $87 a barrel in January.

Gold prices rose, while the dollar edged up against most other major currencies.

The only sector posting major losses Tuesday was healthcare, which has been strong in recent months. WellPoint Inc. fell after Goldman Sachs trimmed its ratings in the managed care sector to neutral from attractive. The investment bank singled out WellPoint's performance amid pricing pressures. The stock plunged $18.66, or 28 percent, to $47.26.

Google Inc. shares spiked after European Union regulators cleared the Internet company's $3.1 billion bid for online ad tracker DoubleClick. Shares of Google rose $26.22, or 6.3 percent, to $439.84.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 29.84, or 4.63 percent, to 673.81.

Advancing issues surpassed decliners by more than 5 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.95 billion shares.

Stocks overseas rebounded. Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average rose 1.01 percent, while Hong Kong's market closed up 1.28 percent higher. Britain's FTSE-100 rose 1.7 percent, Germany was up 2.01 percent, and France added 1.61 percent.

 

<b>MSNBC</b>

<!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><div align="center"><b>Paulson says government will stabilize markets</b></div><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc-->
<div align="center"><i>Bush to meet with economic advisers Monday after bailout of Bear Stearns</i></div>

updated 3:42 p.m. ET March 16, 2008

WASHINGTON - <b>The Bush administration will "do what it takes" to stabilize chaotic markets and minimize the economic damage,</b> Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Sunday after a tumultuous week capped by the government rescue of a teetering investment bank.

<b>All eyes now are on Wall Street as leading financial advisers prepared for a Monday meeting with President George W. Bush and the Federal Reserve weighs another deep interest rate cut Tuesday to stem even more deterioration (ухудшение).</b>

Paulson, in a series of news show appearances, defended the Federal Reserve's extraordinary step Friday to provide emergency financing to one of Wall Street's most venerable firms, Bear Stearns Cos. The central bank's intervention was "the right decision," he said.

The treasury chief sidestepped questions about what would have happened if the Fed had not ridden to the rescue, whether other firms are on shaky ground and the possibility of additional bailouts similar to Bear Stearns'.

At the same time, however, Paulson sought to send a calming message that the administration is on top of the turbulent situation. <b>"The government is prepared to do what it takes to maintain the stability of our financial system," he said. "That's our priority."</b>

Bush planned to meet on Monday with his advisory panel on financial markets, whose members include Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. The panel on Thursday recommended stricter regulation of mortgage lenders as part of a broad effort to prevent a repeat of a credit crisis threatening to drive the U.S. into the first recession since 2001.

Consultations about the Bear Stearns situation continued through the weekend and involved the Treasury Department, the Fed, financial institutions and others. "I've been very involved, you know, been on the phone for a couple days right now helping to work through this," Paulson said. He offered no details.

Economists increasingly believe the spreading fallout from a severe credit crisis has pushed the U.S. into recession. The situation has led to record-high home foreclosures, forced financial companies to take multibillion losses from bad mortgage-linked investments and rocked Wall Street.

<b>"No one is debating the fact that this economy has slowed way down," Paulson said. "We feel it, we know it, the American people know it."</b>

<b>To help shore things up, the Fed is poised to make a big cut to its key interest rate, now at 3 percent. Some economists are predicting a reduction of one-half a percentage point, while others are calling for a more hefty cut of three-quarters to a full percentage point.</b>

The Fed used a procedure from the 1930's Depression-era to come to Bear Stearns' aid along with JPMorgan Chase & Co. Bear Stearns had made a fortune in mortgage-backed securities but faced a possible collapse after those investments soured. Wall Street nose-dived as fears spread about whether other big firms were in jeopardy (опасность).

"I really support the Fed's work here," Paulson said during one of his three broadcast appearances. "To me, this was not difficult because the priority in a time like this has got to be the stability of our financial system and minimizing the likelihood that this disruption spills over into the real economy.

Some critics contend the Fed's move was akin to a government bailout — something the administration has repeatedly said it is against.

"We're very aware of moral hazard," Paulson said. "But our primary concern right now — my primary concern — is the stability of our financial system, the orderliness of the markets. And that's where our focus is," he said.

The financial system, he said, is "more fragile (хрупкая) than we would like right now."

<b>Asked whether other financial companies may be in a situation similar to Bear Stearns', Paulson did not directly answer. He did seek to strike a confident tone. "Well, our financial institutions, our banks and investments banks are very strong," he said. "And I'm convinced that they're going to come out of this situation very strong."</b>

The government will tackle any other problems that may arise, he said.

"From the beginning I have said, as we work through this period, if this was like other times in the past, there are going to be bumps in the road. There are going to be unpleasant surprises. You are going to find that an institution or so has problems. And when they do have problems, you work to deal with it," Paulson said.

On other matters, Paulson was cool to the need for additional economic stimulus, which congressional Democrats are promoting. A recently enacted aid plan includes tax rebates for people and tax breaks for businesses. Paulson said it should help bolster the economy and produce 500,000 to 600,000 jobs this year.

To Democrats, though, Bush is not doing enough to help.

<b>"We're in the most serious economic problem we've been in in a very long time, much worse than 2001. The president's hands-off attitude is reminiscent of Herbert Hoover in 1929, in 1930," said Sen. Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat. "There are lots of things that can be done, particularly on housing. Housing has been the bull's eye of this crisis."</b>

Hoover, a Republican, was president at the time of the Oct. 29, 1929, stock market crash that marked the beginning of the Great Depression in the United States. The following decade was marked by high unemployment and deflation, but brought to power Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933 who introduced the New Deal economic reconstruction program.

<b>House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, "Much of what the administration has done has been too late."</b>

On the plunging value of the U.S. dollar, Paulson stuck to the position of past treasury chiefs when he said a strong dollar is in the national interest. The dollar has dropped to a new low against the euro and fallen sharply against the Japanese yen. That helps sales of U.S. exports to foreign buyers because it makes U.S. goods less expensive. But the drooping dollar increases inflationary pressures.

Paulson appeared on ABC television's "This Week," "Fox News Sunday" and "Late Edition" on CNN. Schumer was on Fox and Pelosi on ABC.

 

Про менеджмент и крупных акционеров. Возможно, кому-то не очень интересно...

<b>The Wall Street Journal</b>

<div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>A Stake Through the Heart</b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>

<i>Bear's Biggest Holders
May Have Little Choice
But to Cut Their Losses</i>

By CASSELL BRYAN-LOW and KATE KELLY
March 17, 2008; Page C2

British billionaire Joseph Lewis made his fortune gambling on currencies. His recent investment in Bear Stearns Cos. has turned out to be a disastrous bet.



The elusive septuagenarian is one the biggest losers from the New York investment bank's problems. In just a few months, he has paper losses of about $800 million on his roughly 9.6% stake in Bear, whose share price has cratered in recent days.



A small cadre of investors, often considered some of the best in the business, own big stakes in Bear that aren't looking good. A number of these shareholders are the type of investors who ordinarily would take a hard line in a sale, demanding a higher price. But with Bear on the brink, they may have little choice.

Among the stakeholders: James Barrow, a Dallas money manager who runs the firm Barrow, Hanley, Mewhinney & Strauss Inc., is the single biggest investor, with a 9.95% stake, according to recent regulatory filings. Bear Stearns Chairman James Cayne, who stepped down as chief executive in January amid criticisms by some investors that he was too hands-off when the mortgage mess unfolded, holds a stake just under 5%. So does activist investor Bruce Sherman, the CEO of Naples, Fla., money-manager Private Capital Management Inc., a unit of Legg Mason Inc., recent regulatory filings show.

Mr. Sherman, who persuaded the media company Knight Ridder Inc. to put itself up for sale in 2005, has taken a more active stance with Bear in recent months, say people familiar with the matter. He closely questioned Bear lead director Vincent Tese about the investment bank's problems last summer and made his dissatisfaction with Mr. Cayne clear to Bear officials in the weeks preceding Mr. Cayne's early-January resignation as CEO, these people said. Mr. Sherman's firm held 5.5 million Bear shares as of Dec. 31, 2007, or a 4.8% stake. Those 5.5 million shares at Friday's close were valued roughly at about $166.5 million, down 80% from a year ago.

Mr. Sherman was unavailable to comment, a spokesman said yesterday. Mr. Lewis was unavailable to comment, a spokesman said. An assistant in Mr. Cayne's Bear office said he was in a meeting and unavailable for comment. Mr. Barrow didn't respond to a request for comment.

Mr. Lewis made his fortune as a currency trader, once amassing a 30% stake in auctioneer Christie's International PLC, and has spent the past decade investing in an array of businesses, including real estate, oil and gas, and sports. He now lives in the tony Lyford Cay development in the Bahamas. He got involved with Bear first as a client and became a major investor last year.

Mr. Lewis long has been a client of Kurt Butenhoff, one of Bear Stearns's heavy hitters in private-client services. Mr. Butenhoff brought the relationship with him to Bear from Salomon Bros., where Mr. Butenhoff was a high-net-worth broker in the early 1990s.

Mr. Lewis began rapidly building his stake in Bear Stearns last summer, shortly after the bank announced that two internal hedge funds had imploded. In December, his stake rose to just under 10% from about 7% when Bear's stock price fell below $110, forcing him to make good on an options trade he had made with another party.

Mr. Lewis could have sold his obligation to buy and washed his hands of an unlucky trade. Instead, he chose to exercise his options, filings show, acquiring hundreds of thousands of new shares. He owns more than 11 million Bear Stearns shares, according to a December regulatory filing.



Friday, Bear's shares fell 47% to a nine-year low of $30 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading after the Federal Reserve and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. stepped in to keep the firm afloat following a severe cash crunch. It doesn't appear from reviews of regulatory filings that Messrs. Sherman, Cayne, Barrow and Lewis have sold shares in recent weeks.

The son of a cafe owner in London's East End, Mr. Lewis started work there and later expanded the family business to create a small empire of theme restaurants. He acquired the nickname "the boxer" in part because his name is similar to boxing legend Joe Louis and also because of his shrewd approach to business.

Mr. Lewis's recent endeavors have included developments in central Florida, where he owns Isleworth and another gated community. About six years ago, Mr. Lewis purchased a stake in Tottenham Hotspur PLC, a soccer club based in northeast London. A keen golfer, Mr. Lewis hosts the Tavistock Cup tournament and has befriended golf star Tiger Woods.

 

18 Mar 2008 18:30 GMT

<div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>Text of today's Federal Open Market Committee rate cut announcement</b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>

WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 2-1/4 percent.

Recent information indicates that the outlook for economic activity has weakened further. Growth in consumer spending has slowed and labor markets have softened. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and the tightening of credit conditions and the deepening of the housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.

Inflation has been elevated, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Todays policy action, combined with those taken earlier, including measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity. However, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will act in a timely manner as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser, who preferred less aggressive action at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 2-1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York and San Francisco.

 

<b>B&FM 19.03.08</b>

 

<b>Yahoo Finance</b>

<!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><b><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><div align="center">Visa Stock Soars in Market Debut</div><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--></b><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc-->

Wednesday March 19, 4:58 pm ET
By Michael Liedtke, AP Business Writer
Visa Shares Soar 28 Percent in Stock Market Debut


SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Catapulted by the biggest IPO in U.S. history, Visa Inc. shares soared 28 percent in their stock market debut Wednesday as investors bet an accelerating shift to electronic payments will enrich the world's largest processor of credit and debit cards.

After being priced above expectations at $44 per share in an initial public offering that raised nearly $18 billion, Visa shares finished at $56.50 on the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday. The run-up gives the San Francisco-based company a market value of about $45 billion.

"This is an exciting and historic day for Visa," said Chairman Joseph Saunders, who received a $10.2 million bonus last year for laying the IPO groundwork.

Investors believe Visa is in a lucrative position as more people rely on its electronic network to make payments instead of using cash and checks. The company is expected to milk the phenomenon to become an even bigger cash cow than it already is.

Visa generated $5.2 billion in annual revenue last year as it handled more than more than 44 billion transactions totaling more than $3.2 trillion. The volume puts Visa far ahead of its main rival MasterCard Inc., whose own shares have more than quintupled from their May 2006 IPO price of $39.

Making Visa even more alluring to investors, the company is well-insulated from the credit problems that have scarred many of the lenders that issue the cards bearing its brand.

Unlike those lenders, Visa doesn't carry any consumer debt on its books. It depends on transaction fees, which have been steadily rising for years, including the past two U.S. recessions in 1991 and 2001.

Since the last recession, Visa has enticed consumers to use its credit and debit cards more frequently to pay for staples like groceries, gas and even utility bills. Visa estimates about 42 percent of its transactions fall into this "nondiscretionary" category, up from 27 percent in 2000.

"Visa enjoys one of the widest economic moats that a company can desire," Morningstar analyst Michael Kon wrote in a Wednesday research note.

Reflecting management's confidence, Visa anticipates annual earnings growth of at least 20 percent for at least the next two years. The company got off to a fast start in its fiscal first quarter ending in December with a $424 million profit, up 70 percent from the previous year.

Visa overcame turbulent market conditions to shatter the previous U.S. record IPO of $10.6 billion raised by AT&T Wireless eight years ago.

"To sell 400 million shares at a time like this is Herculean," said David Menlow, president of IPOfinancial.com

Investment bankers could still exercise an option to buy another 40.6 million Visa shares during the next 30 days. If that happens, Visa's IPO will end up raising $19.7 billion before expenses.

Visa has earmarked more than $10 billion of the IPO proceeds to buy back shares from the banks that helped build up its network over the past 50 years. The biggest chunk, about $1.25 billion, will be paid to its largest customer and shareholder, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The windfall comes a propitious time, given the banking industry's wobbly condition as billions of losses pile up from the housing market's worst downturn since the 1930s.

Another $3 billion from the IPO is being deposited into an escrow account to cover potential liabilities in lawsuits alleging Visa conspired to stifle competition and fix prices.

Those legal problems represent one of the biggest risks to owning Visa stock, although the company's management maintains the escrow account and contingency measures should adequately protect investors. Visa paid more than $2 billion late last year to resolve a suit with American Express Co., but a similar case brought by Discover Financial Services LLC is scheduled for a Sept. 9 trial in New York.

Visa's dependence on only a handful of banks that issue most of its cards poses another possible downside, said Aite Group analyst Gwenn Bezard. The company's five largest customers accounted for $1.2 billion, or 23 percent, of its revenue last year.

Big card issuers like JPMorgan already get special discounts and the pricing pressure on Visa could intensify if more industry mergers further decrease the number of banks using its processing network, Bezard said. That might crimp Visa's profits.

For now, Visa is planning to trim about $300 million in expenses during the next two years to boost its operating profit margin from 37 percent.

Menlow and other analysts don't view Visa's blockbuster IPO as a sign that jittery investors have suddenly become more interested in taking chances on companies going public for the first time.

"This is more like an oasis in the desert," Menlow said.

The arid conditions have produced just 22 IPOs far this year, down from 47 at the same juncture in 2007.

 

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