Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says that a softer dollar will juice US economic growth. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he advises that “obviously a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities.” Does that mean that tracking the dollar’s value in foreign exchange markets offers insight into projecting US GDP in the near term? Alas, no. A preliminary look at the numbers suggests the relationship between a broad measure of the US dollar and GDP growth is mostly noise. A decline in the dollar vs. foreign currencies will provide a tailwind for certain industries for open position trading. In particular, US companies that rely on exports will benefit since their products and services enjoy a greater degree of competitive pricing in offshore markets after translating for a slide in the greenback. But from a top-down perspective you’ll hurt your eyes looking for a reliable pattern through the decades for one-year changes in GDP vs. a broad measure of the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index.