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Тема в разделе "Аналитика по акциям и CFD.", создана пользователем Gof, 19 янв 2008.

  1. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>The New York Times</b>

    <b><div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo-->Burned but Bullish at Citigroup<!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div></b>

    By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ
    Published: January 20, 2008

    IF any Wall Street seer should be bearish right now, it’s Tobias Levkovich, the chief United States equity strategist at Citigroup.

    After all, last week his employer announced a whopping $10 billion loss, not to mention a 41 percent dividend cut and 4,000 additional job cuts. Shares of Citigroup and other financial giants are down sharply in recent months, a fact hardly lost on Mr. Levkovich, who has worked for the bank and its predecessor companies for 20 years.

    “The hit my portfolio has taken has become a significant loss by anyone’s measure,” he says. “I feel crummy.”

    Nevertheless, from his perch at the beleaguered global financial giant, Mr. Levkovich has the distinction of being among the most prominent bulls on Wall Street. His forecast calls for the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index to reach 1,675 by the end of 2008, 350 points and 26 percent higher than where it closed Friday.

    With the S.& P. 500 dropping 5.4 percent last week alone, he acknowledges that his target “is clearly a number that is under duress; the idea that the market will be up 300 points from its current level is something I’m pretty sure people will scoff at.”

    But, he says, “I’m sticking with it for now because I don’t have an analytical basis for changing that view.”

    Crunching the numbers from past downturns while analyzing current earnings projections, Mr. Levkovich argues that the market has already priced in a 40 percent drop in earnings. That is far steeper than even the 20 percent profit drop that typically occurs in a recession.

    And while the odds of a recession are increasing, he says, it’s not a sure thing. “If you had talked to us three months ago, we would have said there is a 25 to 30 percent chance of a recession,” he says. Today he rates that chance at about 50 percent, so to him there’s more than a sliver of hope that the pessimists are wrong.

    The actual math gets pretty complicated but boils down to this, Mr. Levkovich says: “If you track long-term patterns of earnings multiples versus bond yields and equity-risk premiums, we’re at a level today that’s only occurred in 87 months out of the last 46 years. In every single instance the market was up 12 months later, with an average gain of 23 percent.”

    Still with him? I thought so.

    Other parts of his bullish case are a bit more understandable for nonquantitative types, however. For example, he suggests that the huge mortgage-related write-offs by Citigroup, as well as other financial giants like Merrill Lynch and JPMorgan Chase, most likely peaked last quarter, unless the economy enters a very deep dive.

    As for the gloomy sentiment afflicting many investors, Mr. Levkovich argues that it is actually what Wall Streeters call a contra-indicator.

    “Investors have a tendency to chase performance,” he notes. “People put the most money into the market when it was peaking in 2000. Conversely, they tended to bail out in 2002, just as the market was preparing to rebound. So negative sentiment is actually a bullish sign.”

    Not convinced by Mr. Levkovich’s make-lemons-into-lemonade argument? You’re not alone. Richard Bernstein, chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, praises Mr. Levkovich as an insightful market watcher but says: “There’s one major issue upon which we currently disagree. People have underestimated the scope and the spread of the credit problems in the global economy.”

    FIVE and a half years ago, when the S.& P. 500 was off 49 percent from its dot-com-era peak and individual and institutional investors alike were staggered by the collapse of once-hot giants like WorldCom and Enron, he says it would have been hard to imagine that the next three years would have average annual gains of 12.8 percent.

    “If you told people in the fall of 2002 that the S.& P. would be above its 2000 high within five years, you would have been laughed out of the room,” he says. “People said this was going to take decades to recover from.”

    Nowadays, he says, that deep pessimism dominates the debt market and is spreading. But Mr. Levkovich is unbowed by that, too, even though he acknowledges that the last few months have taken their toll.

    “I’m 46, but I feel like I’m 90,” he half-jokes. “I’ve aged a lot recently.”
     
  2. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>The New York Times</b>

    <div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>A Recession’s Impact Is All in the Timing </b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>

    By PAUL J. LIM
    Published: January 20, 2008

    A FEW weeks ago, the big debate on Wall Street was whether or not the economy was headed for a recession. Today, for many investors, the question isn’t whether a recession is coming, but when. In fact, some are wondering whether one has already begun.

    Does the timing of a recession really matter? If you’re an equity investor, it does.

    No matter how aggressively the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, the economy may be headed for a severe downturn. The stock market, at least, seems to support this argument. Just three weeks into the new year, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is down nearly 10 percent. And since the market peaked Oct. 9, stocks have lost more than 15 percent of their value.

    So, the thinking goes, the sooner an official recession is declared, the sooner the economy can start to work its way out of it. “If we are in fact in recession, we may be close to fleshing out a bottom here in stock prices,” said Duncan W. Richardson, chief equity investment officer at Eaton Vance, the asset management firm in Boston.

    Moreover, recent history shows that it’s often the anticipation of a recession that depresses stock prices, not the actual experience of a recession. So if we’re out of the anticipatory stage, stocks could soon start to stabilize.

    Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S.& P., studied the performance of the stock market during the last 11 recessions, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, going back to 1945. He found that the S.& P. 500 fell 26 percent, on average, from the months leading up to a recession to the recession lows.

    Yet Mr. Stovall’s analysis also showed that between the official starting and ending dates of those recessions, the S.& P. held relatively steady, gaining 0.1 percent, on average.

    To be sure, this wasn’t always the case. In the most recent recession, from March to November 2001, stocks tumbled by around 8 percent. And in the severe recession that ran from November 1973 to March 1975, the S.& P. lost nearly a quarter of its value.

    Moreover, the early stages of recessions generally aren’t smooth sailing. A separate study of stocks and recessions by Ned Davis Research showed that equity prices tend to drop nearly 5 percent in the first six months of contractions.

    But the typical recession since World War II has lasted 10 months, on average, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. And over those entire periods, stocks have historically held their ground.

    Why is this important? Well, some economists think that the economy is already in a recession. Earlier this month, the Merrill Lynch economist David A. Rosenberg said that recent employment data suggested the economy might have slipped into a recession at the end of last year. If it did, that could turn out to be reasonably good news for the equity markets now.

    Keep in mind that in three of the last four recessions, stocks didn’t simply hold steady — they actually gained ground. In the recession from July 1990 to March 1991, for instance, the S.& P. 500 rose 2.5 percent, despite a severe sell-off in the summer of 1990. And in the recession from January to July of 1980, stocks climbed nearly 6 percent.

    There is something else to consider. If the economy is already in recession, the Fed will probably have more impetus to cut short-term interest rates to fuel economic activity. And as Nick Raich, director of equity research at the National City Private Client Group in Cleveland, said, “if the Fed is going to get aggressive from here, it could give a boost to stocks later in the year.”

    Aggressive rate cuts could also shorten the duration or severity of a slowdown.

    In most cases, stocks tend to rebound as the economy emerges from a recession. The S.& P. study found that after 10 of the last 11 recessions, stocks soared in the ensuing six months. On average, the S.& P. index gained 12.1 percent.

    If you measure the market’s performance from recession lows, rebounds are even more compelling. Ned Davis Research looked at the last 10 recessions and found that stocks rose 24 percent, on average, in the six months after hitting a recession low. That is why Tim Hayes, chief investment strategist at Ned Davis, said that while a recession could continue to pressure the stock market, “it could also lead to a great buying opportunity.”

    Of course, there are no guarantees that the market will hit bottom in the middle of this slowdown. For instance, after the last recession ended in November 2001, stocks fell 18 percent over the next 12 months.

    Still, there are reasons to believe that this will not be a repeat of the bear market of 2000-2.

    For starters, Mr. Stovall said, “valuations in the market lead me to believe that this market decline will end up being either a correction or a very light bear market.” Although the price-to-earnings ratio of the S.& P. 500 approached 40 in the final stages of the 2001 recession, the ratio today is only around half of that, indicating that stocks aren’t nearly as pricey.

    Moreover, Mr. Raich noted that while profits were likely to take a hit in an actual recession, the weakness in earnings in the third and fourth quarters of 2007 would make for relatively favorable comparisons in the second half of 2008. “So there are some bright spots for the market,” he said. “They’re just being overshadowed right now by all this recession talk.”
     
  3. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    РБК Daily

    <b>На рынках паника </b>
    Их обвалил Джордж Буш

    Пока в США празднуют день Мартина Лютера Кинга, на мировых фондовых рынках царит паника. Инвесторы напуганы возможным началом рецессии в США. Отреагировав на массовые «распродажи» на европейских и азиатских площадках, российский рынок открылся падением. Индекс РТС по данным на 15.00 мск упал почти на 7% и опустился ниже 2012 пунктов, достигнув уровня сентября прошлого года. Ситуация обострилась тем, что вслед за иностранцами акции на этой неделе начали продавать резиденты. Аналитики предупреждают, что дно пока не достигнуто, рынок продолжит падать.

    Эксперты оценивают текущее состояние рынка как тяжелое из-за негативного влияния внешнего фона. В частности, в Японии торги закрылись падением индекса Nikkei до двухлетнего минимума. На рынке продолжается распродажа «голубых фишек». Лидерами по рекордному снижению цен на акции стали ГМК «Норильский никель», «Газпром» и ЛУКОЙЛ. «На прошлой неделе иностранные инвесторы стали выводить деньги, а сейчас акции продают и резиденты», – сообщил РБК daily аналитик компании «Атон-Лайн» Денис Попов.

    После того как президент США заявил в пятницу о сокращении налоговой нагрузки в целях оздоровления экономики, ситуация только ухудшилась. «Никто не поверил Джорджу Бушу, – сказал РБК daily аналитик АК «Барс Финанс» Владимир Рожанковский. – Все, что он говорит, воспринимается инвесторами негативно». По его мнению, панические настроения может остановить ближайшее заседание ФРС и ожидаемое снижение учетной ставки. Пока слова главы ФРС США Бена Бернанке вызывают у участников рынка больше доверия. «Все ждут заседания ФРС, чтобы сверить свои мрачные ожидания с показателями состояния экономики США», – сказала РБК daily замруководителя аналитического отдела компании «Совлинк» Ольга Беленькая.

    По ощущениям участников рынка, рецессия в США уже началась. «Мы наблюдаем продолжение тенденций прошлой недели, – сказал РБК daily директор аналитического департамента Банка Москвы Кирилл Тремасов. – Инвесторы продолжают выводить деньги, но это еще не дно падения, рынок пойдет ниже». Худший сценарий для российского рынка возможен в том случае, если рецессия затронет сырьевые рынки. «Если цены на нефть пойдут вниз, то роста в этом году не будет», – отмечает г-н Попов.

    Сегодняшний откат на российском рынке до уровня сентября эксперты признали серьезным. Аналитики отмечают, что первое полугодие текущего года будет особенно тяжелым. «Рецессия в США уже началась, неясен только ее масштаб», – отмечает г-н Тремасов. Говорить о возможной коррекции на рынке пока рано. Отскока можно ожидать на следующей неделе, после объявления о снижении учетной ставки ФРС США. Ожидаемый коридор снижения – от 0,5 до 0,75%. Однако подобные меры вызывают только временный энтузиазм у инвесторов, так как общее состояние экономики США близко к коллапсу.


    ОЛЬГА МОНИНА
     
  4. DVDima

    DVDima indifférent Команда форума

    Федеральная резервная система США неожиданно снизила ключевую ставку федерального финансирования, причем сразу на 75 базисных пунктов до 3,50 процента годовых, в попытке успокоить инвесторов, второй день распродающих активы в ожидании спада крупнейшей экономики мира.

    Американский центробанк также снизил учетную ставку на 75 базисных пунктов до 4,00 процента годовых.

    Ставка федерального финансирования является индикатором стоимости кредитов на межбанковском рынке, в то время как учетная ставка определяет стоимость прямых кредитов ФРС коммерческим банкам.

    ФРС объяснила свои действия ухудшением прогноза состояния экономики и ростом рисков ее замедления.

    Снижение ставок во вторник стало самым резким изменением стоимости заимствований с ноября 1994 года, года американский центробанк повысил ставки на 75 базисных пунктов.

    В последний раз ФРС сокращала ставки на три четверти процентного пункта в октябре 1984 года.

    Внеочередное заседание ФРС во вторник стало первым с 17 сентября 2001 года, когда фондовый рынок США возобновил торги после атак на Нью-Йорк и Вашингтон 11 сентября.

    Ниже приводятся комментарии аналитиков:

    МАЙКЛ МЕТЦ, OPPENHEIMER & CO.:

    "Это (сокращение ставок) должно снизить темпы замедления экономики, но, если честно, я думаю, что нам предстоит период вынужденной ликвидации позиций на рынке, которая продлится день или два.

    ФРС, очевидно, находится в панике, но, к сожалению, у них нет сил развернуть экономику, которая, с моей точки зрения, переживает самую сильную рецессию со времен Второй мировой войны.

    Я думаю, нам предстоят резкие колебания. Я бы подумал над покупкой на снижении во второй половине дня или завтра утром на новой волне вынужденной ликвидации позиций".

    ПИТЕР БУКВАР, MILLET TABAK & CO.:

    "Внеочередное решение ФРС стало неожиданностью, однако фьючерсы на ставки ФРС указывали на то, что на следующей неделе они сократят ставки на 75 базисных пунктов. Так что это произошло сегодня вместо следующей среды. Несомненно, эта мера поддержки экономики была панической".

    БОБ МАКИНТОШ, EATON VANCE:

    "Это стало сюрпризом, но, принимая во внимание то, что произошло за последние 48 часов, это совсем не удивительно. Это в большей степени психологическая мера, чем все слова ФРС, которая говорит, что поддерживает нас. Это должно помочь изменить ситуацию. Давайте посмотрим".

    РОН СИМПСОН, ACTION ECONOMICS:

    "Это был трусливый шаг. Это мера лишь способствует дальнейшей панике на рынках. И рынки ожидают дальнейшего сокращения ставок на следующей неделе. Реакция доллара была смешанной после решения ФРС: он снизился к евро, но вырос к иене, поскольку фьючерсы на фондовые индексы повысились".

    По материалам Reuters
     
  5. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>The New York Times</b>

    <!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><div align="center"><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>French Bank Says Rogue Trader Lost $7 Billion</b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--></div><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc-->

    By NICOLA CLARK and DAVID JOLLY
    Published: January 25, 2008

    PARIS — A French bank announced Thursday that it had lost $7.2 billion, not because of complex subprime loans, but the old-fashioned way — because a 31-year-old rogue trader made bad bets on stocks and then, in trying to cover up those losses, dug himself deeper into a hole.

    Société Générale, one of France’s largest and most respected banks, said an unassuming midlevel employee who made about 100,000 euros ($147,000) a year — identified by others as Jérôme Kerviel — managed to evade multiple layers of computer controls and audits for as long as a year, stacking up 4.9 billion euros in losses for the bank.

    Unlike many of his high-level trading colleagues, Mr. Kerviel graduated not from one of France’s elite universities, but from a business college in Lyon, and worked up the ranks. It was from his perch in the department that deals with auditing the bank’s trading that Mr. Kerviel developed what bank officials described as an “intimate and perverse” knowledge that he used to cover up unauthorized trades.

    The bank uncovered his scheme last weekend. It was selling off its positions during Monday’s market turmoil in Europe that led, in part, to the Federal Reserve’s history-making rate cut of three-quarters of a percentage point.

    The fraud appeared to be the largest in history by a rogue trader. Mr. Kerviel made no money personally, but apparently hid the trades by making fake orders to balance each of the genuine orders he placed. One unanswered question that authorities will investigate is why it took so long for the bank to uncover the fraud.

    The bank maintained Mr. Kerviel acted alone, but experts wonder how that could be possible, given the checks and balances at financial institutions.

    Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France, the nation’s central bank, said that the losses had put Société Générale in “a very dangerous situation,” but that the bank’s plan to seek 5.5 billion euros ($8 billion) in fresh capital from shareholders would return it to financial health.

    Société Générale said that the trader was no longer working for the bank and that four other people — including the head of its global equity and derivatives trading division, Luc François — had been dismissed. As of late Thursday, the bank had not filed any criminal complaint, said Isabelle Montagne, a spokeswoman for the Paris prosecutor’s office.

    Mr. Kerviel’s whereabouts were unknown, with the bank saying he was missing. But a woman identifying herself as his lawyer told French television Thursday night that “he is not on the run” and that Mr. Kerviel was willing to speak to authorities.

    In bankerly understatement, Société Générale’s chairman, Daniel Bouton, wrote in a letter to clients Thursday that “Société Générale has been victim of a serious internal fraud committed by an imprudent employee.”

    The fraud, carried out over the course of a year, harked back to other huge frauds traders managed to inflict on their employers. In 1995, Nick Leeson, a Singapore-based trader, incurred the equivalent of $1.4 billion in losses over $27 billion in bad bets on Japanese markets. (Similarly, Mr. Kerviel bet on European stock indexes.)

    In the end, Mr. Leeson brought down the venerable British bank Barings. After spending four years in prison and writing a book, he is on the lecture circuit.

    Mr. Leeson — who like Mr. Kerviel had detailed understanding of back-office operations — was found to have acted alone. But Barings was criticized for poor controls and oversight.

    While Société Générale will survive — in contrast to Barings, which was broken up and sold — the loss is an embarrassment to a venerable French institution. It was founded in 1864 under Napoleon III, and today has 120,000 employees and 22.5 million customers worldwide.

    The Kerviel scandal was not the only problem the bank revealed on Thursday. It also said that it would write off 2.05 billion euros ($3 billion) of United States exposure in the fourth quarter, including 1.1 billion euros related to the housing market and 550 million euros related to United States bond insurance companies. It said it was setting aside an additional 400 million euros in provisions against the risk that losses in those two areas would grow.

    Société Générale officials said that Mr. Kerviel confessed and that the bank had begun legal proceedings. They said they did not know his motives, and, in a news conference some French news organizations called “surreal,” questioned his sanity, saying he had “family problems.” The officials did not offer evidence to support their assertions.

    Société Générale said it had no indication that the trader — who joined the company in 2000 and worked for several years in the risk-management office before being moved to the Delta One trading desk in Paris — “had taken massive fraudulent directional positions in 2007 and 2008 far beyond his limited authority.”

    The bank said that the trader — who Mr. Noyer, the central bank governor, said “breached five levels of controls” and was “a computer genius” — continued the fraud until this past weekend. That is when auditors in the risk-management office detected fictitious trades involving European stock index futures.

    When the fraud was unveiled, Mr. Bouton said, it was “imperative that the enormous position that he had built, and hidden, be closed out as rapidly as possible.”

    The timing could hardly have been worse. Société Générale was forced to begin unwinding the trades on Monday “under conditions of extreme market volatility,” Mr. Bouton said.

    Bank officials insisted that the volume of their sales on Monday was not large enough to have a major influence on markets.

    The scandal brought more scrutiny to European banks, which have been criticized for their lack of transparency, and particularly to Société Générale.

    “It is quite surprising that positions of that magnitude would not have been monitored much more carefully in this era of intense focus on risk management,” said Mary L. Schapiro, chief of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, an American regulator. She was in Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum.

    SocGen, as it is widely known, has been criticized for a reluctance to be more forthcoming about its subprime exposure, but the bank was generally well regarded in the financial world.

    This month Risk Magazine, a British publication, named SocGen “equity derivatives house of the year,” praising its ability to manage its risks.

    The French prime minister, François Fillon, also attending the World Economic Forum, told reporters, “Société Générale had confronted a very significant fraud,” but he insisted “the scandal has nothing to do with the situation in the financial markets.”

    He added: “The Bank of France has no worries about the solvency of this financial establishment. The French government is following the situation very, very closely.”

    Mr. Bouton, Société Générale’s chairman, wrote in his letter to clients that “control procedures have been revised and reinforced to avoid any recurrence of further, similar risk.”

    The bombshell for the bank comes as mounting losses from subprime-related investments have raised questions about risk management at institutions.

    Howard W. Lutnick, chief executive of Cantor Fitzgerald, said that such a huge fraud by one trader indicated a bigger weakness in the bank’s systems.

    “One person could engineer it — but how could one person finance it?” Mr. Lutnick said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum. “The question for the risk management department is, How was this kind of fraud financed? Where did that money come from?”

    Howard Davies, former chairman of the Financial Services Authority of Britain and now director of the London School of Economics, said the bank’s explanation of events seemed incomplete. “I don’t think we’ve had the full story,” he said, arguing that one person, however well informed on the bank’s control procedures, should not be able to hide a trade of this scale.

    “It’s a lot of money,” he said. “Normally you have a compliance mechanism,” which involves trades like these being run by more than one person, to avoid a situation where it is “only one pair of eyes.”

    C. Ricardo Esteves, executive director of Banco Hipotecario of Argentina, was more blunt: “It is not credible. One person responsible for this? I just don’t believe it.”
     
  6. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>Financial Times</b>

    <div align="center"><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro-->Lessons from bear markets<!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--></div>
    By John Authers, Investment Editor

    Published: January 23 2008 21:52

    Market analysts have been reaching for the history books a lot this year. Last week, they looked up the history of markets during economic recessions.

    A drastic global sell-off later, and they are looking up the history of bear markets – when major indices fall 20 per cent from peak to trough.

    According to Goldman Sachs, the nine bear markets in the S&P during the past half century lasted an average of 384 days (until markets had regained their peak), with declines at their lowest point of 32 per cent.

    These numbers are skewed (skew - отклоняться) by the huge post-dotcom bubble bear market of this decade. But even median numbers show that declines last 240 days, with falls of 28 per cent. We’re 104 days into a decline that has seen the S&P fall only 19 per cent so far, so this is not encouraging.

    There is more reassurance (утешение) if we look for the bear market that is most comparable. That, arguably, is the 1990-91 sell-off which followed the US savings and loans crash. Like the subprime mess, this emanated from irresponsible lending and the US housing market.

    The fall from October’s peak is now almost identical to the decline suffered in 1990, and has been reached in almost the same number of days. This is encouraging because that was the shallowest (ограниченный, пустой) bear market since the war, bottoming out at 19.9 per cent down, and also one of the shortest. The damage had been repaired within a year.

    Unfortunately, there is reason to fear that this episode is more profoundly (более серьезен, основателен) damaging than the S&L crisis. The pain has been spread far more widely across the globe, as has already been discovered. And this downturn started with levels of optimism about profits growth in the developed world, and economic growth in the developing world, at much higher levels.

    If the sell-off goes much further, it is logical to assume that it will follow the pattern set by harsher (более жестким) bear markets.
     
  7. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>International Herald Tribune</b>

    <div align="center"><b><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo-->Some critics say the Fed may risk repeating earlier mistakes<!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></b></div>

    By Edmund L. Andrews Published: January 24, 2008

    WASHINGTON: Even as the Federal Reserve grapples with the collapse of a speculative bubble in housing - the second speculative bust in less than a decade - is it at risk of repeating recent mistakes?

    After the Fed slashed its benchmark interest rate to head off a possible recession, a small minority of economists are warning that the central bank is in danger of invoking the same remedies (лекарство, мера) that it did after the bubble in technology stocks burst seven years ago.

    Though most experts agree that the economy is on the brink (край, грань) of a recession, and some even contend the recession has already begun, critics say the Fed's attempted rescue looks uncomfortably similar to the aggressive rate reductions that aggravated (отягчать, усугублять, обострять) the speculative bubble in housing.

    "We've literally (зд. без преувеличения) forgotten that this is the very policy environment that led to the housing and mortgage problems in the first place," said Michael Darda, economist at MKM Partners, an investment firm in Greenwich, Connecticut. "We're not going to see another housing bubble, but we could see more inflation."

    Beyond the danger of higher inflation, some analysts warn that the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Ben Bernanke, could also lose credibility by appearing to act in knee-jerk response (зд. естественная реакция) to plunging stock prices.

    "They risk being seen as bailing out equity investors," wrote Adam Posen, deputy director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. "It makes it look as though stock market fears are driving the Fed to action."

    There are few signs yet of rising inflation, while the evidence (основание, факты, доказательство) is increasing that U.S. economic growth has slowed to a crawl. Because a cooling economy usually dampens inflation by reducing demand for goods and services, Fed officials are now far more worried about a painful slowdown than about inflation.

    But other central banks are not following the Fed's lead. Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, strongly hinted (намекнул) Wednesday that European policy makers would keep their benchmark rate unchanged.

    "Particularly in demanding times of significant market correction and turbulences, it is the responsibility of the central bank to solidly anchor inflation expectations to avoid additional volatility," Trichet told the European Parliament in Brussels.

    The Bank of England is not expected to reduce rates quickly either.

    European central bankers face challenges that are different from those the Fed confronts. Few European countries have a housing collapse even remotely (нисколько, ничуть) comparable to that in the United States, though many European banks are suffering big losses on their holdings of American mortgage-backed securities.

    For Bernanke, the biggest risk now is that financial markets will become paralyzed by fear and that investors, corporations and consumers will pull back on their investing and spending, setting in motion a spiral of economic decline.

    Many economists argue that Fed policy makers were entirely justified in reducing the overnight federal funds rate by three-quarters of a percentage point Tuesday, to 3.5 percent, and investors are betting that the Fed will lower the short-term rate another half of a point at a policy meeting next week.

    "Credit conditions have not gotten any easier," said Robert Barbera, chief economist at ITG Hoenig, an economic forecasting firm.

    Because of the continuing anxiety about soured mortgages and the need for banks to keep large volumes of loans on their own balance sheets, Barbera said, the credit crisis is extending beyond subprime mortgages to many kinds of business borrowers.

    But there are hints that the Fed's rush to reduce interest rates has already had a slight impact on inflation expectations.

    Bernanke and other Fed officials contend that inflation expectations are crucial (зд. критические) to the actual course of inflation. Fed officials closely scrutinize (тщательно изучают) two measures of popular expectations.

    One, the University of Michigan's monthly survey of consumers, offers reassuring evidence that consumers' long-run expectations have not changed much even though consumers do expect higher prices over the next year or two - a reflection of concern about higher energy prices.

    The other is the difference between the prices of normal U.S. Treasury securities and special inflation-adjusted Treasury securities, known as TIPS. The difference between those two prices is thought to reflect investors' expectations about inflation.

    Brian Sack, senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers in Washington, said the premium on inflation-protected five-year Treasury securities widened slightly after the Fed announced its rate cut Tuesday.

    The increase was small, to 2.52 percent from 2.47 percent, and Sack cautioned that it could simply reflect market noise. But he said the implicit inflation premium (скрытая инфляционная премия) was at the upper range of its level in the past two years.

    "One of the risks inherent in aggressive easing is the possibility of dislodging (смещение) inflation expectations," Sack said.

    Posen, of the Peterson Institute, predicted (прогнозирует) that the Fed's new policy of lower interest rates would provide "too much rather than too little stimulus" and help push inflation noticeably higher in 2009 and 2010.

    But Posen added that the Fed was facing undeniable pressures to act decisively (решительно) against a potentially serious downturn.

    Bernanke and other Fed officials are well aware of the risks, and of criticism by some experts that the Fed's cheap-money policies from 2001 to 2004 may have aggravated the bubble in housing.

    Indeed, Bernanke resisted demands from Wall Street to reduce interest rates faster. As recently as three weeks ago, the Federal Reserve's official stance (позиция) was that the risks of slowing growth were still roughly balanced against the risk of higher inflation.

    If the Fed continues to lower interest rates, as many Wall Street analysts predict, Bernanke is nonetheless likely to absorb )зд. понимать) as many lessons as possible from its experience after the technology bubble burst.

    Frederic Mishkin, a Fed governor with close ties to Bernanke, suggested in speech last August what one of those lessons might be. If housing prices plunged (зд. упадут), Mishkin said, the Fed should cut rates quickly and substantially (существенно).

    But once the economy begins to recover, he continued, the Fed should raise them back to normal almost as quickly.
     
  8. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>РБК Daily</b>

    <div align="center"><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro-->МТС заплатит абонентам<!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--></div>
    <b><div align="center">За просмотр SMS-рекламы</div></b>
    МТС запустила в коммерческую эксплуатацию услугу «SMS-Спонсор», в рамках которой абоненты будут получать рекламные SMS-сообщения, взамен им будут начисляться средства для оплаты счетов за связь. Максимальная сумма, которую может получить абонент, составляет около 7 долл. в месяц. Услуга в первую очередь заинтересует низкодоходные группы абонентов, считают аналитики.

    В пятницу МТС объявила о запуске услуги «SMS-Спонсор». За каждое полученное рекламное SMS-сообщение абонент получит бонус в размере 28 коп. Бонусы используются для оплаты услуг мобильной связи. Услуга предусматривает для абонента два тарифа — ежедневное получение 10 или 20 SMS-сообщений. При 20 сообщениях подписчик может получить в месяц около 7 долл. ARPU МТС в России в третьем квартале 2007 года достиг 10 долл.

    В компании полагают, что проект будет прибыльным, а отклик на рекламу составит 5—10%. «Мы ориентируемся не только на низкодоходные группы населения — в списке участников пилотного проекта были, к примеру, и абоненты, имеющие прямые номера. У нас есть техническая возможность реализовать для рекламодателей выборку по доходности, демографии и другим характеристикам, что обеспечит высокую адресность рекламы», — сообщила пресс-секретарь МТС Ирина Осадчая. В МТС ожидают, что интерес к услуге проявят производители табака и алкогольной продукции, реклама которых через традиционные площадки ограничена.

    В перспективе МТС планирует расширять спектр рекламных услуг. Недавно оператор запустил проект мобильной рекламы в MMS-формате. Проект позволяет абонентам бесплатно получать MMS-сообщения с развлекательным контентом и баннерами с рекламой товаров и услуг. Проект находится в стадии пилота, но в МТС уже довольны результатами.

    Несколько лет назад «МегаФон» запустил проект, связанный с рассылкой рекламных SMS-сообщений, в Северо-Западном регионе. Однако вскоре после запуска услуга прекратила свое существование. Пока «МегаФон» зарабатывает деньги на рекламе, размещенной на WAP-портале. В перспективе оператор не исключает возможности запуска и других сервисов, в том числе с использованием SMS- и MMS-сообщений.

    «Отклик абонентов на новую услугу, безусловно, будет. 7 долл. — достаточная сумма для малоговорящих подписчиков», — уверен аналитик AC&M Consulting Антон Погребинский. Новая услуга позволит МТС активно работать с низкодоходными абонентами, что приведет к повышению ARPU, считает аналитик J’son & Partners Ирина Астафьева. «Аудитория услуги — низкодоходные группы населения, такие как молодежь и пенсионеры. Вряд ли услугой будут пользоваться абоненты с ARPU свыше 15 долл.», — уверена аналитик. Поэтому главный вопрос в том, найдутся ли рекламодатели под этот проект, заключила Ирина Астафьева.


    АЛЕКСАНДР ДЕМЕНТЬЕВ

    28.01.2008
     
  9. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    Наткнулся тут на статью, датированную аж августом 2006 года. Статья про рецессию в известной всем стране.

    <a href="http://www.vedomosti.ru/newspaper/article.shtml?2006/08/16/111103" target="_blank">http://www.vedomosti.ru/newspaper/article....06/08/16/111103</a>
     
  10. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>Yahoo Finance</b>

    <!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><b>Fed Cuts Interest Rates by 1/2 Point</b><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec-->
    Wednesday January 30, 3:05 pm ET
    By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
    Federal Reserve Reduces Federal Funds Rate by 1/2 Point to 3 Percent


    WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut a key interest rate for the second time in just over a week, reducing the federal funds rate by a half point. It signaled that further rate cuts were possible.
    ADVERTISEMENT


    The Fed action pushed the funds rate to 3 percent. It followed a three-fourths of a percentage point cut on Jan. 22, a day after financial markets around the world had plummeted on fears that the U.S. economy was heading into a recession. That decrease had been the biggest one-day move in more than two decades.

    The half-point cut Wednesday followed news that the economy had slowed significantly in the final three months of last year with the gross domestic product (ВВП) expanding at a barely discernible pace of 0.6 percent, less than half what had been expected. The report came amid increased concern from several quarters about a possible recession.

    In a brief statement explaining their decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues said that "financial markets remain under considerable stress."

    The Fed move was approved on a 9 to 1 vote. Richard Fisher, president of the Fed's Dallas regional bank, dissented, preferring no change in rates.

    The rate cut marked the fifth time that the Fed has cut the funds rate since it started with a half-point cut on Sept. 18 in response to the severe (суровый) credit crisis which hit global markets in August.

    Financial markets, which had been hoping for a bolder half-point move, rallied on the announcement. The Dow Jones industrial average, which had been in negative territory shortly before the Fed action, climbed back into the positive range in the minutes following the statement, with the Dow Jones industrial average up by more than 70 points in the first half-hour of trading.

    <b>Economists said the Fed decided to move a half-point rather than a quarter-point because it did not want an adverse reaction on Wall Street.</b>

    "At this tenuous time, they did not want to disappoint the markets," said David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors.

    Jones said he expected at least one more rate cut, probably a quarter-point, at the next Fed meeting in March or at the April meeting.

    The latest Fed action was quickly followed by cuts in banks' prime lending rate, the benchmark rate for millions of consumer and business loans. Banks announced that they were cutting the prime rate from 6.5 percent down to 6 percent, the lowest level for the prime since the spring of 2005.

    The Fed's hope is that by making credit cheaper, it will encourage more borrowing, giving the economy a needed boost (поддержка).

    In its statement, the Fed said that "downside risks to growth remain" and pledged to (зд. связывать обещанием) "act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks." That was seen as a pledge to cut rates further if the economy continues to weaken.

    On inflation, the Fed officials said that they expected inflationary pressures to moderate in coming quarters but they also pledged to monitor price developments closely.

    The GDP report showed that a key gauge of core inflation, which excludes energy and food, jumped at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the final three months of last year, the fastest increase in a year and up sharply from a 2 percent increase in the July-September quarter.

    The economy has been dealt a series of blows from a two-year slump in housing to a severe credit squeeze as banks faced with billions of dollars in losses from mortgage defaults have cut back on their lending and tightened standards.

    The GDP report showed that the housing collapse had depressed economic growth last year by the largest amount in a quarter-century. Policymakers are worried that the slump (резкое падение) could intensify this year as millions of subprime mortgages rest at higher rates.

    To combat the threat of a recession in an election year, the Bush administration has been negotiating with congressional leaders for an economic stimulus package of around $150 billion, focused on tax rebates for households and business tax breaks to spur (зд. простимулировать) investment. The House passed its version of the proposal on Tuesday but Senate action could be delayed by efforts to expand the relief to senior citizens and the unemployed.

    The Fed move Wednesday occurred at the first regularly scheduled meeting of 2008 for the Federal Open Market Committee, the group of Fed governors in Washington and regional Fed bank presidents who set interest rates.

    The Fed's three-quarter-point cut on Jan. 22 was taken after an emergency video conference held by Bernanke and other members of the FOMC.

    That rate cut, the biggest reduction in the funds rate in more than two decades, was seen as an effort to boldly demonstrate that the central bank was prepared to do whatever necessary to keep the country from slipping into a recession -- or at least make the downturn milder более умеренным) than it would have been otherwise.

    Financial markets had complained that once the credit crisis hit in August, the Bernanke-led Fed had been too tentative in its responses until last week's move.

    <b>Many private economists believe the central bank will keep cutting rates through the spring, especially if the unemployment rate keeps rising. The jobless rate jumped from 4.7 percent to 5 percent in December, the biggest one-month increase in five years.</b>
     
  11. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>Financial Times</b>

    <div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>Asia economies hope for happy divorce</b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>
    By FT Reporters

    Published: January 30 2008 22:33 | Last updated: January 30 2008 22:33

    Asia’s export-dependent economies are hoping that decoupling – the notion that the rest of the world can grow even with the US in recession – will hold true.

    There have been signs. Over the past year, Japanese shipments to China have risen by 15 per cent, to Europe and other Asian nations by 11.5 per cent, and to the “rest of world”, including the oil-flush Middle East, by 25 per cent.

    Peter Morgan, chief economist for Asia Pacific at HSBC, says that one of the chinks in decoupling’s armour is Europe.

    The region has been happily sucking in Asian imports thanks to its strong currency and reasonably good economic performance. But as Asian currencies appreciate, against the euro as well as the dollar, and European economies slow, that will change. “That is going to take away one of the legs of the stool,” he says.

    Exports to the Middle East, which accounts for a fairly modest but rapidly growing portion of Asian exports, should hold up assuming demand for oil stays firm. But the foundations of intra-Asian trade, on which much of the argument about export diversification rests, could be more rickety than they appear.

    “One thing to remember is that a lot of exports to China are just passing through,” says Mr Morgan, referring to China’s role as an assembly plant for Asian components.

    Asian exports to the US appear to be just 18 per cent. But, the real amount, including all the “goods in process”, might be more than 30 per cent, he calculates.

    Thailand is a good example. Recent economic growth has been powered primarily by exports, about 12.5 per cent of which went directly to the US last year, down from about 20 per cent when the previous US recession struck in 2001.

    Yet Thailand is not as insulated as this might suggest. Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput, chief economist at SCB Securities, says Bangkok remains vulnerable to a US slowdown since most of its exports to China – about 9.5 per cent of total shipments, up from 4.4 per cent in 2001 – are components used to make goods bound for the US.

    The picture is not black and white and decoupling is not an “either/or phenomenon”, says Paul Sheard, global chief economist at Lehman Brothers. Asia emerged relatively unscathed from the 1991 US recession but was much harder hit by the “tech recession” of 2001. Similarly, this time, depending on the precise nature of any downturn, commodity-rich Australia, Indonesia and Malaysia might fare better than, say, countries specialising in electronics, such as Taiwan or South Korea.

    Indonesia, for example, has already noticed its non-oil and gas exports slowing to the US. Mari Pangestu, trade minister, told the Financial Times: “Our strategy now is to diversify markets and diversify products. We think the growth market is still Asia, although if the US does fall into recession it will have an impact on the high-growth economies.”

    The US remains India’s largest export market, reducing the country’s chances of surviving a US downturn unscathed. The Reserve Bank of India says it has already seen a slowdown in the crucial software and services exports.

    By contrast, Australia’s reliance on US exports has substantially diminished. Tim Harcourt, chief economist at the Australian Trade Commission, points out that the US share of Australia’s exports has fallen from 10 per cent to just 6 per cent as “Australia has benefited from the global economy firing on more cylinders than usual.”

    China and the health of its economy could be a key factor for many others in Asia. If China’s role as the world’s assembly plant is vulnerable to a US downturn, its infrastructure-led demand is less so. Barring the truly unexpected, even a US recession is not likely to push Chinese growth much below 9 per cent, against 11.4 per cent last year.

    Depending on the components of that growth, there could be more demand for, say, raw materials and construction equipment and less for components and factory machinery.

    That could slow, but not throttle, growth in some Asian economies. For example, both Singapore and Malaysia have seen a slowdown in their biggest export category, electronics.

    But, according to Kit Wei Zheng, a Citigroup economist, Singapore is unlikely to suffer as big a slump as in 2001 because it has diversified into other export areas, including pharmaceuticals. Likewise, Malaysia is partly cushioned by the global demand for palm oil.

    Diversification will only go so far, however, particularly if US consumption nosedives, says Mr Sheard. “Asia, centred on China, has become even more interlinked into the global economy, the driving impetus of which has been the US,” he said. It is hard to be global and decoupled at the same time.

    By David Pilling in Tokyo, John Aglionby in Jakarta, Jack Burton in Singapore, Amy Kazmin in Thailand, Joe Leahy in Mumbai, Amy Yee in New Delhi, Song Jung-a in Seoul, Peter Smith in Sydney, and Raphael Minder in Ho Chi Minh City
     
  12. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>РБК Daily</b>

    <!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><b>S&P и Fitch впали в пессимизм</b><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec-->
    <b><div align="center">Агентства планируют масштабные понижения рейтингов</div></b>
    В связи с американским ипотечным кризисом рейтинговое агентство Standard & Poor’s (S&P) намерено понизить рейтинги более 8 тыс. выпусков ценных бумаг стоимостью 534 млрд долл. По мнению аналитиков, акция подобных масштабов затронет практически все крупные банки, которым придется прибегнуть к новым корректировкам балансовой стоимости. Многие фонды будут вынуждены продать потерявшие в рейтинге бумаги. Пессимизм Standard & Poor’s передался и агентству Fitch Ratings, которое также вчера сообщило о высокой вероятности негативных рейтинговых действий в течение этого года.

    Как сообщило агентство в среду в Нью-Йорке, речь идет о ценных бумагах, привязанных к портфелям высокорисковых ипотечных кредитов. Standard & Poor’s предупредило, что понизило или собирается понизить в ближайшее время рейтинги по выпускам американских ипотечных бумаг на сумму 270 млрд долл., а также будет пристально наблюдать за выпусками облигаций, обеспеченными долговыми облигациями (CDO), на сумму еще 264 млрд долл. с возможностью понижения их рейтингов в перспективе. Речь идет о более чем 8300 выпусках подобных ценных бумаг. Для некоторых из них рейтинг уже был понижен, отметили в S&P, однако, судя по всему, это еще не предел.

    «Рынок недвижимости, особенно сектор высокорисковой ипотеки, будет продолжать снижаться, что отразится на ценах на дома, — прокомментировали в S&P. — Мы ожидаем, что потери в отрасли продолжатся». Главный экономист S&P Дэвид Уисс прогнозирует, что к концу 2008 года цены на недвижимость в США снизятся на 13% по сравнению со средней стоимостью в 2006 году и, вероятно, дно падения будет «нащупано» лишь в начале 2009 года.

    К настоящему моменту списания мировых банков из-за subprime кризиса уже превысили 130 млрд долл. Standard & Poor’s прогнозирует, что потери отрасли в целом достигнут 265 млрд долл. Как подчеркивают в Standard & Poor’s, кризис еще далеко не завершился, потому как именно сейчас банки открывают следующую главу во всей этой истории. После того как крупные банки уже объявили о своих многомиллиардных списаниях, следует ждать печальных новостей и из небольших американских банков. Кроме того, вероятны сообщения о больших убытках из крупных банков Европы, считают в S&P. 14-миллиардные списания швейцарского банка UBS AG, о которых было объявлено в среду, лишнее тому подтверждение. S&P понизило рейтинговый прогноз для Deutsche Bank, Dresdner Bank, UBS, Barclays и Fortis до «негативного». Понижение рейтингов повышает издержки банков на рефинансирование их задолженностей.

    «Понижение рейтингов по облигациям повредит финансовому сектору. Все знают, что жилищный рынок в США падает, невыплаты по кредитам растут, но если у вас надежный портфель облигаций и вы намерены держать его на протяжении срока действия кредита, то по стандартам отчетности вы можете не списывать эти бумаги, даже если их рыночная стоимость снижается. Однако если рейтинговое агентст­во понижает ваши бумаги с уровня, допустим, AAA до AA, то вы обязаны списать часть их стоимости. Если агентства начнут понижать рейтинги, списания ждут многие компании», — пояснил РБК daily аналитик Portales Partners Гари Гордон.

    Не предвидит улучшения в ситуации на мировых финансовых рынках и международное рейтинговое агентство Fitch Ratings. Агентство в специальном отчете «Обзор глобального прогноза по рейтингам на 2008 год» отмечает вероятность замедления экономического роста в мире, сохранения повышенных уровней рыночного риска и ухода от очень низких уровней дефолтов по кредитам, которые наблюдались последние четыре года. Эти факторы будут способствовать проведению дальнейших негативных рейтинговых действий в течение текущего года.

    «На темпы и масштабы негативных рейтинговых действий будет влиять роль кредитных рейтингов как показателя относительной вероятности дефолта, а не ценообразования на рынках или экономической активности», — говорит глава европейского отдела Fitch по кредитной политике Ричард Хантер. Аналитики Fitch также отмечают, что в 2008 году ожидается существенное уменьшение позитивных рейтинговых тенденций, которые в последние годы были характерны в отношении эмитентов с развивающихся рынков.


    ОЛЬГА СОКОЛИК, АНДРЕЙ КОТОВ, АЛЕКСАНДР ПОЛОЦКИЙ

    01.02.2008
     
  13. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>Yahoo Finance</b>

    <div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>Microsoft Offers $44.6B for Yahoo</b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>
    Friday February 1, 10:40 am ET
    By Michael Liedtke, AP Business Writer

    Microsoft Makes Unexpected $44.6B Bid for Yahoo; Internet Icon Is Studying It


    SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Microsoft Corp. has pounced on slumping Internet icon Yahoo Inc. with an unsolicited takeover offer of $44.6 billion in its boldest bid yet to challenge Google Inc.'s dominance of the lucrative online search and advertising markets. The Justice Department says it is interested in reviewing antitrust issues associated with it.
    ADVERTISEMENT


    The surprise offer of $31 per share, made late Thursday and announced Friday, seizes on Yahoo's weakness while Microsoft tries to muscle up in a high-stakes battle with Google likely to define the technology landscape for years to come.

    In a statement Friday, Yahoo said it will "carefully and promptly" study Microsoft's bid.

    With its profits steadily sliding, Yahoo's stock slipped to a four-year low earlier this week and a new management team has been trying to steer a turnaround but sees more turbulence through 2008.

    The announcement lifted Yahoo's share price by almost 50 percent in morning trading, while Google fell almost 8 percent, dragged down by a fourth-quarter earnings report that missed Wall Street expectations.

    In conference call Friday morning, Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer indicated he won't take no for an answer after Yahoo rebuffed takeover overtures a year ago.

    "This is a decision we have -- and I have -- thought long and hard about," Ballmer said. "We are confident it's the right path for Microsoft and Yahoo."

    To underscore its resolve, Microsoft is offering a 62 percent premium to Yahoo's closing stock price Thursday. If the deal is consummated, it would be by far the largest acquisition in Microsoft's history, eclipsing last year's $6 billion purchase of online ad service aQuantive.

    Since reaching a 52-week high of $34.08 in October, Yahoo shares have fallen 46 percent. Yahoo climbed $9.41 a share, or 49 percent, to $28.59 in morning trading. Microsoft shares fell $1.43, or 4.4 percent, to $31.17.

    Microsoft publicly disclosed its cash-and-stock offer in hopes of rallying support from Yahoo's shareholders, making it more difficult for Yahoo's board to turn down the bid.

    In a letter released Friday, Ballmer pointedly noted Yahoo's financial performance has deteriorated since Microsoft was spurned a year ago. At that time, Ballmer said he was told Yahoo believed it was better off on its own.

    "A year has gone by, and the competitive situation has not improved," Ballmer wrote in his letter.

    Microsoft's previous offer was rebuffed by Terry Semel, who stepped aside last year as chief executive under shareholder pressure.

    Microsoft sent its latest takeover offer to Yahoo late Thursday, shortly after Semel resigned as the company's chairman. The letter is addressed to Semel's successors, new Chairman Roy Bostock and the current CEO, co-founder Jerry Yang, who is one of Yahoo's largest shareholders.

    In a prepared statement, Yahoo said its board "will evaluate this proposal carefully and promptly in the context of Yahoo's strategic plans and pursue the best course of action to maximize long-term value for shareholders."

    Microsoft views Yahoo as its best chance to thwart Google, which has leveraged its leadership in Internet search and advertising to emerge as an increasingly serious threat to the world's largest software maker's persuasive influence on how people interact with computers.

    Google already controls nearly 60 percent of the U.S. search market, and has been widening its lead, despite concerted efforts by both second-place Yahoo and third-place Microsoft. By combining, Microsoft and Yahoo would have a 33 percent share of the U.S. search market, according to the latest data from comScore Media Metrix.

    By joining forces, Microsoft and Yahoo also would widen their narrowing advantage over Google in providing free e-mail accounts -- a service that helps foster more loyalty with users and create more advertising opportunities.

    Advertisers around the world are expected to double their spending on the Internet during the next three years as more people get their news and entertainment on the Web instead of television, radio, newspapers and magazine. The trend is expected to create an $80 billion online ad market in 2010, up from an estimated $40 billion last year.

    Despite an aggressive push in recent years, Microsoft's online advertising expansion hasn't paid off. Last week, the Redmond, Wash.-based company reported a 79 percent jump in its overall profit, but its online division's loss widened to $245 million.

    And Yahoo has been struggling to attract more advertising even though its Web site attracts one of the biggest audiences. The Sunnyvale-based company's profit has declined for five consecutive quarters, prompting plans to cut 1,000 jobs later this month, a 7 percent reduction of its 14,300-employee work force.

    Besides helping to boost its online ad revenue, Microsoft believes it could mine more profit from Yahoo by jettisoning workers and eliminating overlapping operations.

    Microsoft said it sees at least $1 billion in cost savings if it buys Yahoo. Microsoft executives deflected questions about how many jobs might be lost, but the company emphasized retention packages will be offered to Yahoo engineers and other key employees, including some executives.

    The fate of Yahoo's brand also is unclear if Microsoft takes over. Both Ballmer and Kevin Johnson, president of Microsoft's platforms and services division, hailed Yahoo's strong brand value but didn't commit to keeping the name alive.

    AP Business Writer Jennifer Malloy in New York and AP Business Writer Jessica Mintz in Seattle contributed to this story.
     
  14. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>The New York Times</b>

    <!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><div align="center"><b>Google Works to Torpedo Microsoft Bid for Yahoo </b></div><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec-->

    Standing between a marriage of Microsoft and Yahoo may be the technology behemoth that has continually outsmarted them: Google.

    In an unusually aggressive effort to prevent Microsoft from moving forward with its $44.6 billion hostile bid for Yahoo, Google emerged over the weekend with plans to play the role of spoiler.

    Publicly, Google came out against the deal, contending in a statement that the pairing, proposed by Microsoft on Friday in the form of a hostile offer, would pose threats to competition that need to be examined by policy makers around the world.

    Privately, Google, seeing the potential deal as a direct attack, went much further. Its chief executive, Eric E. Schmidt, placed a call to Yahoo’s chief, Jerry Yang, offering the company’s help in fending off Microsoft, possibly in the form of a partnership between the companies, people briefed on the call said.

    Google’s lobbyists in Washington have also begun plotting how it might present a case against the transaction to lawmakers, people briefed on the company’s plans said. Google could benefit by simply prolonging a regulatory review until after the next president takes office.

    In addition, several Google executives made “back-channel” calls over the weekend to allies at companies like Time Warner, which owns AOL, to inquire whether they planned to pursue a rival offer and how they could assist, these people said. Google owns 5 percent of AOL.

    Despite Google’s efforts and the work of Yahoo’s own bankers over the weekend to garner interest in a bid to rival Microsoft’s, one did not seem likely, at least at this early stage.

    For example, a spokesman for the News Corporation said Sunday night that it was not preparing a bid, and other frequently named prospective suitors like Time Warner, AT&T and Comcast have not begun work on offers, people close to them said. They suggested that they did not want to enter a bidding war with Microsoft, which could easily top their offers.

    A spokesman for Time Warner declined to comment, as did a spokesman for Comcast. A representative for AT&T could not be reached.

    In the meantime, people close to Yahoo said that the company received a flurry of inquires over the weekend from potential suitors. Some people inside Yahoo have even speculated about the prospect of breaking up the company. That could mean selling or outsourcing its search-related business to Google and spinning off or selling its operations that produce original content, these people said.

    “Everyone is considering all kinds of options and a deal on search is one of them,” a person familiar with the situation said.

    One person involved in Yahoo’s deliberations suggested that “the sum of the parts are worth more than the whole,” arguing that its various pieces like Yahoo Finance, for example, could be sold to a company like the News Corporation for a huge premium while Yahoo Sports could be sold to a company like ESPN, a unit of the Walt Disney Company.

    Executives at rival companies were less optimistic about such a breakup strategy. “No one can get to a $44 billion price,” one executive at a major media company said, “even if you split it into a dozen pieces.”

    In making its bid for Yahoo, Microsoft is betting that past antitrust rulings against it for abusing its monopoly power in personal computer software will not restrain its hand in an Internet deal.

    In the United States, a federal district court in Washington ruled in 2001 that Microsoft had repeatedly violated the law by stifling the threat to its monopoly position posed by Netscape, which popularized the Web browser. The suit, brought during the Clinton administration, was settled by the Bush administration. But as a result of a consent decree extending through 2009, a federal court and a three-member team of technical experts monitors Microsoft’s behavior.

    In 2006, for example, after Google complained to the Justice Department and the European Commission that Microsoft was making its MSN search engine the default in the most recent version of its Web browser, Microsoft modified the software so that consumers could easily change to Google or Yahoo.

    In Google’s statement on Sunday, it said that the potential purchase of Yahoo by Microsoft could pose threats to competition that needed to be examined by policy makers.

    Google’s broadly worded concerns lacked detailed claims about any anticompetitive effects of the deal, and the company did not publicly ask regulators to take specific actions at this time.

    “Could Microsoft now attempt to exert the same sort of inappropriate and illegal influence over the Internet that it did with the PC?” asked David Drummond, Google’s senior vice president and chief legal officer, writing on the company’s blog.

    Yahoo and Microsoft declined to comment Sunday on Google’s actions. Earlier on Sunday, Microsoft’s general counsel, Bradford L. Smith, said in a statement: “The combination of Microsoft and Yahoo will create a more competitive marketplace by establishing a compelling No. 2 competitor for Internet search and online advertising.”

    Google’s effort to derail or delay the deal on antitrust grounds mirrors Microsoft’s own actions with respect to Google’s bid for the online advertising specialist DoubleClick for $3.1 billion, announced in April.

    The strategy is not surprising, considering that any delays would work to Google’s benefit. “Google can tap into all of the ill will that Microsoft has created in the last couple of decades on the antitrust front,” said Eric Goldman, director the High-Tech Law Institute at the Santa Clara University School of Law.

    The outcome of any antitrust inquiry will hinge, in part, on how regulators define various markets. Microsoft-Yahoo, for instance, would have a large share of the Web-based e-mail market, but a smaller share of the overall e-mail market.

    “The potential concern would be that Microsoft, if it acquires Yahoo, could do on the Internet what it did in the personal computer world — make technical standards more Microsoft-centric and steer consumers to its products,” said Stephen D. Houck, a lawyer representing the states involved in the consent decree against Microsoft.

    Yahoo has not made a public statement about the proposed deal since Friday, when it said it was weighing Microsoft’s offer as well as alternatives and would “pursue the best course of action to maximize long-term value for shareholders.”

    Carl W. Tobias, a law professor at the University of Richmond in Virginia, said an antitrust review of the Microsoft-Yahoo deal could take a long time and “may well bleed into a new administration with an entire new view on antitrust than the Bush administration.”

    Steve Lohr contributed reporting.
     
  15. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>Yahoo Finance</b>

    <div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>Dow Plunges 300 on Weak Service Sector</b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>
    Tuesday February 5, 3:22 pm ET
    By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
    Stocks Tumble As Weak Service-Sector Report Stirs Concerns About Economy's Health


    NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks slumped for a second straight session Tuesday after Wall Street saw an unexpected contraction in the service sector as evidence that the economy is sinking into recession. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 300 points, while bond prices rose.

    The Institute for Supply Management said its January index of the service sector, which accounts for about two-thirds of the economy, dropped below 50, indicating contraction. Economists had been expecting another month of growth; the last time the service sector contracted was in March 2003.

    "The report drives a nail into the coffin (забить гвоздь в крышку гроба - и грустно и смешно) from investors' minds that we're in a recession," said Todd Salamone, director of trading at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "That doesn't mean stock prices in the months ahead will be lower. But when you see headline numbers like this, there tends to be a reactionary sell."

    It's possible the service sector, which includes businesses ranging from restaurants to retailers to banks, could bounce back in February as the manufacturing sector did in January after its December contraction. The benefit of the Federal Reserve's two big interest rate cuts in the latter part of January could also help spur the service sector back into growth mode later this year.

    Still, the data was particularly worrisome given last week's Labor Department report, which showed that the <b>U.S. economy lost jobs in January for the first time in more than four years</b>. <b>Together, the two reports indicate that the ongoing credit crisis is dragging down the actual economy.</b>

    <b>Fitch Ratings' plans to lower the rating on more than $100 billion wrapped up in bond funds called collateralized debt obligations added to the host of concerns plaguing Wall Street</b>. Further downgrades would mean the securities -- many of which are backed by mortgages -- are worth even less than many investors thought. That could cause more problems for strugging banks, brokerages, and bond insurers.

    In late afternoon trading, the Dow fell 327.19, or 2.59 percent, to 12,307.97. The blue-chip index is about 13 percent below its Oct. 9 record close of 14,164.53, but still above the 15-month trading low of 11,634.82 it hit Jan. 22.

    Broader stock indicators also dropped sharply. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 38.57, or 2.79 percent, to 1,342.25, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 64.79, or 2.72 percent, to 2,318.06.

    Bond prices jumped as investors sought the safety of government-backed debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, sank to 3.58 percent from 3.64 percent late Monday.

    Over Monday and Tuesday's trading, the Dow has given up nearly half the gains it made last week, when it jumped 4.39 percent. It's not surprising that the volatile market would pull back, given last week's huge surge, and many analysts claim stocks should be near their bottom given how low investors sentiment is right now.

    According to JPMorgan equities analyst Thomas J. Lee, the three worst readings on record in the ISM's service sector index are associated with stocks rising in the ensuing three months -- on average, by 6 percent.

    The biggest losers in the stock market Tuesday were banks, which already suffered huge losses in their investment portfolios last year and are now socking billions of dollars away to prepare for debt-burdened consumers to stop making payments.

    Dow component Citigroup Inc. fell $1.93, or 6.6 percent, to $27.29, while JPMorgan Chase & Co., another Dow component, fell $1.94, or 4.2 percent, to $44.28. Washington Mutual Inc. fell 85 cents, or 4.4 percent, to $18.31; Bank of America Corp. fell $1.40, or 3.2 percent, to $42.63; and Wachovia Corp. fell $1.07, or 3 percent, to $34.46.

    "When you have the financials in intensive care such as they are, for any economy like ours, they must heal," said Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at the Hartford. "They drew us into this; they must lead us out."

    GMAC Financial Services said Tuesday it posted a loss during the fourth quarter as many homeowners failed to keep up with mortgage payments. GMAC, the former lending arm of General Motors, is now co-owned by GM and Cerberus Capital Management LLC.

    Light, sweet crude oil declined $1.61 to $88.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as traders bet that a slower economy would dampen energy demand. An extended drop in energy prices could buoy businesses that are finding their supply costs are rising, but that their customers are having trouble taking on price increases.

    The dollar rose against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

    The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 18.14, or 2.51 percent, to 705.32.

    Stocks overseas also retreated. Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.82 percent; Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 0.89 percent; Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.63 percent; Germany's DAX index fell 3.36 percent; and France's CAC-40 fell 3.96 percent.
     
  16. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>The Wall Street Journal</b>

    <div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>Rescue Plans Won't Prevent Downgrades --- Banks Trying to Salvage Bond Insurers Realize Ratings Will Still Suffer </b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>
    By Karen Richardson, Liam Pleven and Carrick Mollenkamp
    07.02.2008

    Rescue plans are starting to take shape for struggling bond insurers, but they aren't likely to prevent further ratings downgrades for many of the companies.

    At least one such company isn't waiting around. In an effort to raise capital, MBIA Inc. yesterday said it would issue $750 million of common stock, a bigger offering than the $500 million issue it had initially planned.

    The company also said it will revise its fourth-quarter loss of $2.3 billion, cutting it by $65 million. MBIA also added $100 million to its loss reserve, bringing the total special addition to $200 million.

    Still, some banks and investors working toward salvaging (спасая) the bond insurers, which guarantee the interest and principal in the event of default, are realizing that even the best plans could require them to settle for less -- less risk, less reward and bond insurers with less-than-triple-A ratings in the future, according to several people familiar with the rescue talks.

    A group of banks -- betting that the insurers still have some value -- are working with the management and investors of New York-based Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. on a potential plan for FGIC. They have held a series of meetings and conference calls in recent days. The group, which is led by Calyon, a unit of French bank Credit Agricole SA, includes UBS AG, Societe Generale SA, Citigroup Inc., and Barclays PLC. A Calyon spokeswoman declined to comment.

    The banks are trying to figure out how to commute (менять), or unwind (покрыть позицию), their credit-default swaps, which are contracts they entered into with FGIC and other bond insurers to guarantee their portfolios of complex debt securities known as collateralized-debt obligations, or CDOs, according to people familiar with the talks.

    A consortium of banks working toward a rescue plan for bond-insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. also is discussing a similar option, according to people familiar with the matter.

    In exchange for unwinding the contracts, FGIC and Ambac could give the banks stakes in their companies through warrants, according to these people.

    The banks, then, would share in the proceeds that the bond insurers would make as they collect premiums and wait for their existing portfolio of policies to expire, or "run off." In this scenario, the most the banks are hoping for is that the bond insurers' credit ratings don't fall below double-A, but they aren't getting their hopes up for a return to triple-A glory, according to two of the people.

    "There's run-off value as you get rid of the toxic elements of these companies through commutations," says David Havens, an analyst at UBS Securities, who isn't involved in any of the bailout talks. "Only about 5% of the business is problematic, and 95% is fine."

    Ambac, FGIC and rivals MBIA, Security Capital Assurance Ltd. and CIFG Holding Ltd. are exposed to about $100 billion in CDOs that were backed by rapidly deteriorating subprime mortgage collateral, according to Fitch Ratings.

    <b>Some analysts estimate that sharp downgrades of these bond insurers, or their insolvency, could cause banks to write down as much as $70 billion.</b> In late December, for example, Calyon said 1.2 billion euros ($1.75 billion) in its write-downs was tied to bond insurers, mainly ACA Financial Guaranty Corp., which was downgraded to triple-C from single-A.

    By unwinding the credit-default swaps, the banks would enable the bond insurers to free up capital, which they could use to help preserve their ratings or help prevent further downgrades.

    Of about $315 billion in debt that FGIC had insured through to Sept. 30, 2007, about $31 billion was backed by mortgage collateral and $8 billion was backed by subprime mortgages, according to an FGIC presentation. Ambac has about $67 billion in CDO exposure. Spokesmen for FGIC didn't respond to calls to comment, and a spokesman for Ambac declined to comment.

    Most of the bond insurers in the industry are under threat of losing their high-level ratings as the mortgage crisis increases the likelihood that they will have to pay out claims with limited access to capital.

    <b>Fitch, for example, says it is possible that the majority of bond insurers won't continue to have triple-A ratings in the future. </b>

    "It's just an indeterminable (неопределимый) amount (сумма) of losses on these assets and the final number could be far more significant that we had been envisioning," Thomas Abruzzo, managing director at Fitch, says. Last month, Fitch and Standard & Poor's downgraded FGIC to double-A from triple-A. Fitch also downgraded Ambac to double-A.

    A key hurdle (барьер) for the banks and the bond insurers is determining how much the banks should get in exchange for tearing up their credit-default swaps, and whether owning stakes in companies that could get further downgraded is fair compensation, says one person familiar with the discussions.

    Another option being bandied about by analysts and others is to form a new company, funded by the banks, which could take responsibility for meeting the obligations of some of the insurance policies -- mainly the credit-default contracts -- weighing on the bond insurers.

    <b>This model would have the added benefit of enabling banks to unwind some of their credit-default swaps with the other beleaguered bond insurers, and guarantee their debt with the new, triple-A-rated bond insurer. </b>

    But there are potential downsides, too. Banks might be choosy about which risks they would be willing to let the new insurer take on, and that could mean bond insurers might be left with the high-risk business, Steve Stelmach, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. noted in a recent research note.
     
  17. Bond777

    Bond777 диссидент

    <b>Daily FX</b>

    <!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:4--><span style="font-size:14pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo-->105 Dollar Yen - Is That Threshold of Pain For BOJ?<!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--> <!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc-->

    Thursday, 07 February 2008 11:50:11 GMT

    Written by Boris Schlossberg, Senior Currency Strategist

    In June of 2007 the carry trade was booming in the currency markets. Japanese housewives collectively dubbed “Mrs. Watanabe” by the press were beating weathered bank traders from UBS and Deutsche Bank at their own game as they drove USDJPY in a relentless one way move to five year highs of 124.13. Meanwhile, Nikkei rallied above 18,000 – its best levels this decade – as export driven Japanese corporations enjoyed tremendous exchange rate advantages both in Europe and North America and booked their strongest profits in years.

    <b>What a difference a few months make.</b>

    The collapse of the US housing sector created a massive credit crunch in global financial markets triggering wave upon wave of risk aversion resulting in massive unwinds of the carry trade. Although the Japanese financial institutions were relatively untouched by the losses in the Asset Backed market, the Nikkei nevertheless plunged as the yen rose, racking up bigger losses than even the Dow Jones Industrial Average..

    Presently, with USDJPY now trading around 106.50, the Nikkei has declined to 13,000 or more 5000 points off the highs in June. Furthermore, Japanese economy has taken a serious turn for the worse. The latest Eco–Watchers survey, always the most sensitive leading measure of consumer demand, has fallen to a four year low of 36 – way below the 50 boom/bust line. GDP growth is forecast to flatline completely in Q4 of 2007. In short, only a few months after seemingly ending its decade long struggle with deflation and contraction, the Japanese economy threatens to slip right back into economic malaise and the primary reason for its woes is the resurgence of the yen.

    <b>Squeezed from 2 Sides</b>

    Economic growth is Japan is driven by corporate profits and capital investment. The consumer, hampered by stagnant wages and structural changes in labor laws that have favored temporary rather permanent employment, has been moribund for years. BoJ attempts to re-liquefy the system have done little to spur spending because growth in discretionary income has been practically non-existent for the average Japanese consumer during this decade. Therefore, it is the exports of Japan’s multi-national corporations that are the primary driver of economic growth in the land of the rising sun. Given that dynamic the exchange value of the yen plays a crucial role in determining the success or failure of the whole economy. According to the latest Tankan survey most Japanese corporations forecast the value of USDJPY in 2008 to be at around 113.00. With the pair now trading at 106.50 those hedges are deep in the red indicating that profit margins for exporters will suffer.

    In fact, in 2008 Japanese multi-nationals may be squeezed from both sides as the high value of the yen and the global economic slowdown could prove to be a deadly combination as it raises costs while limiting sales. Already in the month January Toyota, Honda and Nissan experienced year over year declines in sales of as much 7% as the industry steels itself for its worst year since 1998.

    <b>Intervention and Its Effectiveness </b>

    Therefore, given the sharp drop in the Nikkei, the virtual standstill in economic activity and the growing squeeze on its export sector, is not unreasonable to wonder if Bank of Japan may begin to intervene in the currency market to help prop up USDJPY? Latest anecdotal evidence suggests that Japanese corporations have adjusted their budgets to accommodate 100-105 USDJPY exchange rates for this year. That means that the BOJ may not tolerate any drop below 100 level in order to assure that the country’s exporters are not crippled by uncompetitive exchange rates.
    While the effectiveness of currency intervention as a policy tool has been an ongoing debate within the financial markets and academia for years, there is little argument that at least in the short tern it can brutally effective. Amongst the G-3 central banks, the BOJ is by far the most active practitioner of this policy. Furthermore, the BOJ like to optimize the effectiveness of its intervention by fading speculative extremes. According to COT data speculative positioning is actually very long yen at the moment with speculators registering 98% reading on our proprietary 52 week gauge.


    <b>What Does this Mean to Traders?</b>

    The possibility of BOJ intervention can have radically different implications for currency traders depending on whether they are trading momentum or carry strategies. Let take a look at each idea separately.

    <b>Momentum Traders</b>

    Momentum traders looking to sell a break of the 105.00 level should be particularly careful with their size and their stops. If BOJ does decide to intervene, the counter trend moves that develop in the wake of this policy tend to be highly volatile with USDJPY often rising more than 100 points within minutes of the action. These moves are designed to be exacerbated by the skew in positioning which catches the majority of the specs of guard and forces a massive short covering rally in the pair that can magnify losses even further. Therefore, those traders betting on a break should trade with smaller size and predetermined stops so that if they do run into a wall of intervention they would be able to absorb the risk with minimum of pain.

    <b>Carry Traders</b>

    Carry traders, looking to pick up USDJPY longs at value levels should employ a different strategy by scaling into their positions with BOJ essentially acting as their back stop. Intervention is typically not a one time affair for the BOJ. Once Japanese monetary authorities’ decide to defend a price level, they will employ their resources over and over to make their message clear to the market. As the following table shows, the most recent rounds of BOJ intervention lasted for several months. This means that even if the 105 level is broken USDJPY is unlikely to fall to 100 right away as BOJ makes constant forays into the market to prop up the pair. Therefore, those traders positioned long the carry should look to stagger their entries and stretch their stops to take advantage of the larger, more fluid price range that may develop, betting that at least in the short term the bid of the BOJ will support their long USD JPY positions.

    <b>Conclusion</b>

    While there is certainly no guarantee that the BOJ will intervene at the 105-100 area, economic factors and positioning data suggest that Governor Fukui and company may indeed opt for that solution. Given that possibility the above mentioned strategies should hopefully minimize risk and optimize return for both momentum and carry traders. At the very least traders should pay particular attention to the price action if USDJPY slides down to the 105 level in the near future.
     
  18. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>The Wall Street Journal</b>

    <div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>Diversifying Isn't Paying Off This Year --- As U.S. Economic Woes Spread Abroad, Overseas Stocks Are Also Falling</b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>

    By Joanna Slater
    08.02.2008

    Overseas shares have suffered this year together with their U.S. counterparts, putting the plans of many individual investors to the test.

    Drawn by outsize returns and a desire to diversify their portfolios, Americans sent mountains of investment dollars abroad last year. Mutual funds that invest primarily outside the U.S. finished last year with $138 billion in net inflows from customers, according to the Investment Company Institute. By contrast, funds investing in U.S. shares saw net outflows.

    Stocks outside the U.S. last year outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the fifth year in a row, with fast-growing emerging markets leading the pack: They jumped nearly 37% in dollar terms, according to a Morgan Stanley Capital International index.

    Now people who parked their cash overseas are finding that diversifying their portfolios wasn't necessarily a bulwark against economic uncertainty and that turbocharged growth in emerging markets isn't guaranteed.

    This year, all markets are hurting together, thanks to the growing view that economic woes in the U.S. are spreading to other countries. Emerging markets are down about 12% in dollar terms, while the Dow Jones World Index, excluding the U.S., had fallen about 12%. Yesterday, India's benchmark index dropped 3.4%, while most other Asian markets were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

    The recent drops have spooked many investors into seeking safer bets such as U.S. Treasurys. In last month's final two weeks, mutual funds focusing on stocks outside the U.S. saw a net outflow of $5.4 billion, according to research firm AMG Data Services. Funds that invest in U.S. shares had an outflow of $11.4 billion.

    But Kevin Hussey, a telecommunications executive who lives in Ellicott City, Md., says he won't flinch. Back in 2006, he allocated about 5% of his portfolio to funds investing in emerging markets. Now that figure has grown to 8% to 10%. Mr. Hussey says he is likely to increase the weighting further this year. One of his emerging-market funds had a return of more than 35% in 2007.

    During the latest turbulence in the markets, he checked his portfolio every other day and followed financial news daily on his BlackBerry.

    Hot stock markets in places such as China and India might be getting driven higher by a herd mentality among investors, he acknowledges. But Mr. Hussey says his work has convinced him of the growth prospects in Asia and Latin America.

    "I know where we're going to be selling our products and technology over the next 20 years," he says. "As long as I have a stomach for plus or minus 50% years in that part of the portfolio . . . over time, I'll share in the growth in those markets."

    He has shied away from more targeted bets such as exchange-traded funds that focus on a single country like Brazil or Russia. Instead, he prefers to invest in diversified funds that invest in a variety of emerging markets.

    Mr. Hussey is emblematic of a broader shift that has taken place among American investors in recent years. Once comfortable investing only in the familiar at home, they are increasingly stretching their investments far and wide.

    Meantime, Patrick McGibbon, a trade-association executive who lives in Virginia, says that as the credit crisis emerged last year he started to feel uneasy about hanging on to his highflying international holdings.

    In July he sold nearly all such investments in his shorter-term trading account. They included funds invested in Central Europe and Asia, as well as specific stocks with major exposure to China.

    He isn't ready to wade back in. "I don't think the fall is quite over yet," he says. <b>By late spring or early summer, though, he says, it may be "a wonderful time to be looking at international again." </b>

    Instead, he has been buying U.S. stocks over the past month. "There are some pretty interesting things that have gotten down to a level where I can afford them," he says, including companies that sell industrial machinery and medical equipment.

    Recommendations vary regarding how much of a portfolio to allot to non-U.S. shares. <b>As of the start of this year, the U.S. accounted for about two-fifths of global market capitalization. That means a stock portfolio that fully reflects the heft of overseas markets would allocate about three-fifths of its holdings to non-U.S. shares.</b> <b>Emerging markets, a smaller group of fast-growing developing countries, accounted for about 11% of world-wide market value. </b>

    Kevin Gahagan, a financial planner in San Francisco, says that right now he is in the process of discussing with his 220 clients a move to increase their allocation to international stocks. Currently it's at 40% of stock holdings, and the plan is to increase it to 50%. Despite the recent market turmoil, he says, so far every client he has met with has agreed to the plan.

    "Our objective here is not to catch a wave," says Mr. Gahagan. "We may make this change and see these markets decline" in the short run. Farther out, though, he says, the prospects for the rest of the world are "no worse, and at least as good, maybe better" than those of the U.S.

    For other individual investors, the rise of emerging-market economies means they aren't a switch to be turned on and off in portfolios while chasing returns. "I never had any great love or great disdain for emerging markets," says Richard Evans, who runs a small advertising agency in Westchester County, N.Y. But "they're a necessary part of a diversified approach" to investing, he says.

    He isn't worried that global markets tumbled together in January, which meant that an internationally diversified portfolio provided little insulation. In the short term, "markets will move together to a great extent. Over the longer term, he says, "one can zig while the other zags."

    ffff.PNG



    <b>The New York Times</b>

    <div align="center"><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><b>Is It Too Late For Yahoo?</b> <!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--></div>
    By MIGUEL HELFT and BRAD STONE
    08.02.2008

    <b>О внутреннем положении Yahoo!</b>

    SAN FRANCISCO -- One of the first questions that Jerry Yang and his top lieutenants pondered after he became chief executive of Yahoo last summer was whether the company could remain independent. They quickly answered yes.

    But Mr. Yang, who founded Yahoo along with David Filo in 1995, had a harder time coming up with convincing answers for many of the more complex questions facing the company. How exactly would an independent Yahoo sharpen its focus, shed marginal projects and become a stronger competitor to Google, the runaway leader in online search and advertising?

    Mr. Yang, a cerebral, highly analytic executive who, by all accounts, cares deeply about the company he helped build and its workers, appears to have run out of time to answer those questions. A $44.6 billion bid from Microsoft is once again forcing Mr. Yang and his board to consider the viability of Yahoo as an independent company.

    This time, Mr. Yang, 39, faces enormous pressure as he decides whether to try to rescue the company from the clutches of Microsoft, or accept the bid and watch Yahoo become part of Microsoft's arsenal in its no-holds-barred brawl with Google.

    Some analysts and several current and former Yahoo executives are, meanwhile, wondering whether things would be different had Mr. Yang been quicker at making some of the tough choices that Yahoo faced.

    ''He came on board, announced a 100-day strategic review and promised there would be no sacred cows,'' said Mark Mahaney, an analyst with Citigroup. ''One hundred days went by, and no cows were slaughtered (убой).''

    It took until last week, more than six months into Mr. Yang's tenure, for him to announce that Yahoo would cut 1,000 employees. At the same time, however, Mr. Yang warned investors that he had decided to make larger-than-expected investments in the business. The announcement sent the company's shares down to their lowest level in more than three years, precipitating Microsoft's bid.

    ''Why couldn't those things be hashed out in the first 100 days?'' Mr. Mahaney asked.

    Yahoo declined to make Mr. Yang available for an interview. But other Yahoo executives strongly defended his short tenure, saying Mr. Yang had quickly set priorities and laid out a precise strategy for making Yahoo more competitive.

    ''We have moved quickly and aggressively to implement (осуществить) our strategy,'' said Hilary Schneider, an executive vice president in charge of Yahoo's network of advertisers and publishers.

    By most measures, Mr. Yang is one of the most successful entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley history. He helped build Yahoo from an early directory of Web sites into a sprawling Internet giant that offers services from online dating to e-mail that are used by nearly 500 million people around the globe. His wealth is estimated to top $2 billion.

    Early on, as Yahoo's business grew, Mr. Yang and Mr. Filo recognized that they did not have the experience to run the company. They called themselves Chief Yahoos and hired others to fill the chief executive post: Tim Koogle and then Terry S. Semel. Mr. Filo worked as an architect of Yahoo's computer systems. Mr. Yang played the role of strategic adviser and represented Yahoo in front of investors and business partners.

    Last June, Yahoo investors became increasingly disenchanted with Mr. Semel, as Yahoo struggled to compete with Google in the online search business and faced growing threats from successful social networks like MySpace and Facebook.

    Mr. Semel resigned and Mr. Yang was unexpectedly thrust into the chief executive job. He inherited a long list of problems, including a demoralized work force and a company that had grown bureaucratic and cluttered with too many projects.

    At the time, Mr. Yang said his years as a Yahoo strategist had prepared him well for the job. And he dismissed speculation that his tenure would be short-lived.

    But many Yahoo executives, as well as some of Mr. Yang's friends, say he accepted the job only reluctantly (с неохотой), out of a sense of responsibility and care for his company.

    Mr. Yang himself, at times, suggested that some of the burdens of his new role weighed heavily on him. Speaking to Yahoo advertisers at a conference in October, he described the chief executive job as ''lonely.''

    ''As a founder everybody loves you,'' he said. ''When you become C.E.O., you can tell somewhat the behaviors change.'' He later added: ''You have to make tough calls.''

    Mr. Yang is generally well liked by Yahoo's workers, and his appointment helped improve employee morale. He took steps to restore aspects of the company's start-up culture, for example, by being more open about the challenges facing it. He held some meetings with executives in the middle of the cafeteria.

    Mr. Yang and Yahoo's president, Susan L. Decker, also moved quickly to hash out a strategy. The two thought that Yahoo's business plan was basically sound but that the company needed to be better managed and had to get out of some businesses that were not vital to its future. They reorganized to make business units more accountable, and they made some acquisitions to build Yahoo's advertising and e-mail technology.

    ''They have moved faster than they have in the past and focused on increasing the value they provide to the advertiser,'' said David W. Kenny, chief executive of Digitas, an interactive marketing agency that is part of the Publicis Groupe.

    Mr. Yang and Ms. Decker also began meeting regularly with an expanding group of top executives in the offices of Stone Yamashita Partners, a consulting firm in San Francisco. According to executives who attended those meetings, Mr. Yang and Ms. Decker were quick to outline Yahoo's top priorities: becoming a starting point for consumers on the Web, developing technology and relationships to sell ads on Yahoo and other Web sites, and opening up Yahoo to outside programmers and publishers.

    But to achieve those, Yahoo also had to cut some things. In particular, it had to prune its sprawling Internet portal so that employees could be reassigned to crucial projects.

    ''You can't place your chips on every spot and every color and every number,'' said Dan Finnigan, an executive vice president who ran Yahoo's HotJobs site and left last year. ''Businesses like travel, shopping, music and even HotJobs were all great products, but none were going to make a huge difference in the fight with Google unless we used them to drive the main search business.''

    Many other executives agreed that Yahoo had to focus on fewer things. To stress the point, Mr. Yang invited Steven P. Jobs, Apple's chief executive, to give a pep talk to some 300 Yahoo vice presidents. Mr. Jobs told them that years earlier many Apple insiders wanted the company to compete with Palm's personal digital assistants. Mr. Jobs said he decided against it, and noted that had Apple gone after Palm, it might not have been able to develop the iPod.

    But cutting was not easy for Mr. Yang, who choked up in front of employees years ago when Yahoo made its first significant layoffs after the dot-com crash. When a group of executives presented options, he stalled (зд. заблокировал).

    ''Instead of saying yes or no, there were no decisions,'' said a person who attended many of the meetings. ''These decisions are agonizing for him. It's his caring about the people and the company that make him both great for this job and difficult for the job.''

    One top executive countered that Mr. Yang had already shuttered some projects and turned Yahoo into a more efficient company, without jeopardizing profitable businesses.

    Some analysts said the only move that could have averted (предотвращать) Microsoft's bid was for Yahoo to outsource its search advertising business to Google -- something the company is now considering.

    Jordan Rohan, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, noted that this decision would have required Mr. Yang to admit defeat in a critical area. ''It would also have required a sense of urgency (чувство настойчивости) that Jerry has not necessarily shown,'' he said.

    On Wall Street, patience was running thin. Yahoo shares kept declining, from a high of more than $34 in October to about $24 at the end of the year and a low of $18.58 last week.

    ''We are still trying to do too many things, and fund them in a way that we need to in order to win,'' said a senior executive who has grown disillusioned with Mr. Yang. ''With the stock at $24 or $25, we'd be having a very different conversation now. But there were decisions made that were naive that have left us in a position where we can't control our destiny.''

    <b>Ведомости</b>

    <div align="center"><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b>Новые правила Standard & Poor's</b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></div>
    Михаил Оверченко
    8 февраля 2008

    Среди планируемых мер - смена ведущих аналитиков, отвечающих за выставление рейтинга, после пяти лет работы с компанией-эмитентом, правительством-эмитентом или организатором структурированного финансирования. Это делается для того, чтобы профессиональные или личные связи, сложившиеся у аналитика с рейтингуемой организацией, не влияли на процесс ее оценки и выставления рейтинга.

    S&P также введет практику ретроспективного анализа присвоенных рейтингов, если аналитик перейдет на работу в компанию, которую он оценивал.

    Будет введена должность омбудсмена «для рассмотрения жалоб эмитентов, инвесторов, служащих и других участников рынка, касающихся потенциальных конфликтов интересов, а также аналитических технологий и процессов корпоративного управления во всех подразделениях S&P». Кроме того, независимая компания будет анализировать деятельность S&P и публиковать заключения.

    При выставлении рейтингов агентство теперь будет учитывать факторы, не относящиеся к риску дефолта, включая ликвидность, волатильность, корреляцию, которые могут повлиять на оценку и рыночную динамику стоимости кредитных инструментов. Будут повышены требования к раскрытию информации о портфелях эмитентов ценных бумаг в некоторых сделках по секьюритизации. А инвесторы получат больше информации об активах, используемых в таких сделках в качестве обеспечения.

    «Повысив прозрачность [нашей деятельности], мы сможем повысить доверие к кредитному рынку», - заявил президент S&P Дивен Шарма.

    Два других рейтинговых агентства, Moody's Investors Service и Fitch Ratings, на этой неделе также объявили о планах (правда, менее масштабных) по реорганизации системы выставления рейтингов, прежде всего структурированным инструментам.

    Рейтинговые агентства попали под шквал критики после того, как присвоили слишком высокие рейтинги высокорискованным ипотечным облигациям, а затем стали массово снижать их во время кредитного кризиса. В июле 2007 г. S&P и Moody's снизили рейтинги более 1000 выпусков ипотечных облигаций, в ноябре - 2000. А в январе 2008 г. S&P понизило или поставило на пересмотр рейтинги более 8300 ипотечных инструментов на общую сумму $534 млрд.

    Гендиректор управления регулирования финансовой индустрии США Мэри Шапиро заявила о возможности постановки рейтинговых агентств, которые она назвала «стражами кредитных рынков», под контроль регуляторов. Если агентства радикально не реформируются, Еврокомиссия займется их регулированием, пообещал комиссар ЕС по финуслугам Чарли Маккриви.

    Использованы материалы FT, WSJ.
     
  19. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>Yahoo Finance</b>

    <div align="center"><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><b>Yahoo Rejects Microsoft's $44.6B Bid</b><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--></div>
    Monday February 11, 11:25 am ET
    By Michael Liedtke, AP Business Writer
    Yahoo Board Formally Rebuffs Microsoft's $44.6 Billion Takeover Bid

    SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Yahoo Inc. spurned (досл.: с презрением отвергло) Microsoft Corp.'s $44.6 billion takeover bid as inadequate Monday, betting that it can elicit (добиться) a higher offer from the world's largest software maker or find another way to deliver a comparable payoff to its shareholders.

    The rebuff (категорический отказ) by the slumping Internet pioneer had been widely anticipated after word of Yahoo's intention was leaked during the weekend.

    In its formal response, Yahoo said its board had concluded Microsoft's unsolicited offer "substantially undervalues" the Sunnyvale-based company.

    Yahoo indicated it could be lured to the negotiating table (Yаhoo! отметило, что компания может быть вовлечена в процесс переговоров) if Microsoft ups the ante, without mentioning the price it has in mind.

    "The board of directors is continually evaluating all of its strategic options in the context of the rapidly evolving industry environment and we remain committed to pursuing initiatives that maximize value for all stockholders," Yahoo said in a statement.

    Investors appeared confident that Microsoft wants Yahoo badly enough to raise the stakes. Yahoo shares rose 34 cents to $29.54 in Monday's morning trading while Microsoft shares fell 46 cents to $28.10.

    If Microsoft doesn't raise its offer, Yahoo Chief Executive Jerry Yang assured employees in a Monday e-mail that the company is poised to rebound on its own and become a "must buy" in the $45 billion online advertising market.

    "We have accomplished a great deal in a very short time," wrote Yang, a company co-founder who promised things would get better after he became CEO eight months ago. "Yahoo is a faster-moving, better organized, more nimble company well on its way to transforming the experiences of its users, advertisers, publishers and developers."

    Just two days before Microsoft made its bid, Yang had warned Yahoo faced "headwinds" that made it unlikely the company's performance would improve significantly until 2009.

    Yahoo's stock price had dropped by more than 40 percent in the three months leading to Microsoft's bid, valued at $31 per share when it was announced Feb. 1. The offer was 62 percent above Yahoo's market value at the time.

    Many analysts believe Redmond, Wash.-based Microsoft will eventually raise its bid to $35 to $40 per share, sweetening the pot by $5 billion to $12 billion in an effort to negotiate an amicable (дружественный) sale.

    Microsoft was prepared to pay at least $40 per share for Yahoo a year ago, according to a person familiar with the talks between the two companies a year ago. Yahoo wasn't interested then because it was confident in its own strategy, said the person, who didn't want to be identified because Microsoft's 2007 offer was never publicly disclosed.

    But a higher bid now could hurt Microsoft's own stock price, which has been slipping amid concerns that a Yahoo takeover could be more trouble than its worth. Microsoft's market value has plunged by more than $40 billion, or 14 percent, since the bid was made public.

    Microsoft representatives didn't immediately respond to requests for comment Monday morning.

    RBC Capital Markets analyst Jordan Rohan predicted Yahoo's board will have little choice but to sell the company if Microsoft raises its bid to $35 or $36 per share. "Yahoo management has already exhausted the patience of its largest, longest-suffering shareholders," Rohan wrote in a Monday note.

    If it doesn't want to pay more money, Microsoft could take its original bid directly to Yahoo's shareholders. Microsoft's management began preparing for that possibility last week by meeting with some of Yahoo's major shareholders to rally support for its offer.

    In a more extreme tactic, Microsoft could try to override Yahoo's board by trying to oust the current directors later this year -- a risky maneuver that would likely create hard feelings that would make it more difficult to cobble the two businesses together if a deal were consummated.

    Yahoo also could fend off (отражать) Microsoft by exercising an antitakeover device, known as a "poison pill," that would issue more company shares to make a buyout too expensive to pull off.

    Although its profits have been dwindling (сокращаться) during the past two years, Yahoo still possesses one of the Internet's biggest audiences and most valuable franchises. Microsoft believes it can build on those assets to become a more formidable competitor to Google Inc., which now holds a commanding lead in the lucrative online search and advertising markets.

    Yahoo has reportedly been exploring an advertising partnership with Google as one way to boost its profits and remain independent. The company also has been looking for other suitors that might be interested in countering Microsoft's bid, but so far no one has stepped forward.

    <b>By rejecting Microsoft's initial offer, Yahoo's board is running the risk that the company's stock will plunge below $20 per share again if its suitor decides to walk away.</b>

    That scenario would probably unleash a flood of shareholder lawsuits, intensifying the pressure on Yahoo's management team to deliver on a long-awaited turnaround that has been in the works for the past 18 months.
     
  20. Gof

    Gof Аццкий Трейдер

    <b>Yahoo Finance</b>

    <!--coloro:#0000FF--><span style="color:#0000FF"><!--/coloro--><!--sizeo:3--><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo--><b><div align="center">Stocks Turn Positive After Ambac Report</div></b><!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec--><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc-->

    By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
    Stocks Reverse Steep Losses After Report Indicates Deal to Aid Troubled Bond Insurer Is Near


    NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street staged a dramatic turnaround Friday, shooting higher in the last half-hour of trading after word that a bailout plan for troubled bond insurer Ambac Financial could be announced next week. The major indexes ended a week of choppy trading mixed.

    CNBC reported shortly before the closing bell that <b>a plan to help shore up the finances of Ambac Financial Group Inc. could be announced Monday or Tuesday. Ambac shares jumped on the report and finished up $1.48, or 16 percent, at $10.71.</b>

    The market's turnaround came after nearly two full days of selling. The Dow Jones industrial average had been down nearly 130 points, but by the close, showed a 225-point reversal from its lows of the session.

    "There's probably some validity to the rumors," said Jim Herrick, manager of equity trading at Baird & Co., referring to traders' speculation about Ambac. "With the overall financial crunch we've experienced, this brings new confidence in the sector."

    The Dow rose 96.72, or 0.79 percent, to 12,381.02.

    Broader stock indicators also moved higher. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 10.58, or 0.79 percent, to 1,353.11, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 3.57, or 0.16 percent, to 2,303.35.

    For the week, the Dow edged up 0.27 percent, while the S&P 500 rose 0.23 percent and the Nasdaq lost 0.79 percent.

    The market's early decline followed a sell-off Thursday that left the Dow down more than 140 points, or 1.15 percent. Investors worried about a weaker-than-expected reading on regional manufacturing from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia as well as another drop in the Conference Board's monthly index of leading economic indicators.

    Bond prices reversed alongside stocks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.80 percent in late trading from 3.78 percent late Thursday. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

    Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose 58 cents to settle at $98.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange amid concerns about possible supply disruptions and cold weather.

    The day's late reversal appeared to ease some of Wall Street's concerns about the prospects for the financial sector and the overall economy after several weak economic readings. The reports arriving in recent weeks have raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve will be able to fend off a recession. There have also been more urgent fears the U.S. may be entering a period of stagflation -- when stalling growth accompanies rising prices -- for the first time since the 1970s.

    As occurred Wednesday and again late Friday, investors at times set aside those concerns and snapped up stocks either to cover bets that stocks would fall or amid genuine, if tentative, optimism that officials from the Fed to other parts of the government could help right the economy. Wednesday's gains followed a quiet start to the week Tuesday -- markets were closed for Presidents Day Monday -- and came after minutes from the Fed's last meeting indicated the central bank plans to lower interest rates as needed and look past some gathering concerns about inflation.

    <b>Wall Street's bursts of optimism haven't proven long-lasting. Investors remain concerned that the economy could be so weak that rate cuts, which take months to work their way through the economy, won't stave off a further slowdown. </b>A government-backed plan to aid bond insurers could help boost confidence in the bond market, where a lack of confidence has crimped the flow of money.

    <b>The Fed's next rate-setting meeting is scheduled for March 18.</b> Policymakers lowered key interest rates a half-point to 3 percent on Jan. 30, following an emergency three-quarter point cut the previous week.

    Ryan Detrick, strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, said that <b>among the reports due next week, investors will be looking to readings on producer prices</b><b> -- a key measure of inflation -- as well as on consumer sentiment. </b>He noted that recent consumer confidence figures, which have been weak, added to Wall Street's concerns that hesitant consumers could pare their spending.

    A pullback among buyers is an unwelcome prospect for investors as consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

    Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be testifying about the economy during two appearances on Capitol Hill.

    In corporate news, <b>Merrill Lynch lowered its ratings on government-sponsored lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to "sell," contending the companies face continued headwinds amid the credit crisis.</b> Freddie Mac fell $1.14, or 4.1 percent, to $26.61, while Fannie Mae declined 27 cents to $28.72.

    Software maker Intuit Inc. fell $2.74, or 9.2 percent, to $27.05 after posting a 21 percent decline in its second-quarter profit late Thursday.

    Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 3 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 3.46 billion shares, compared with 3.55 billion seen Thursday.

    The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies slipped 0.85, or 0.12 percent, to 695.43.

    Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed down 1.37 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.74 percent, Germany's DAX index closed down 1.43 percent, and France's CAC-40 slid 0.71 percent.

    The Dow Jones industrial average ended the week up 32.81, or 0.27 percent, at 12,381.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 index finished up 3.12, or 0.23 percent, at 1,353.11. The Nasdaq composite index ended the week down 18.45, or 0.79 percent, at 2,303.35.

    The Russell 2000 index finished the week down 6.09, or 0.87 percent, at 695.43.

    <b>The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index -- a free-float weighted index that measures 5,000 U.S. based companies -- ended Friday at 13,663.03, up 10.30 points, or 0.08 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 14,778.71.</b>
     

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